For my father it was Desert Storm, now it’s Epic Fury. But will this conflict become yet another forever war?

For my father it was Desert Storm, now it’s Epic Fury. But will this conflict become yet another forever war? 

From Tampa to Tehran, one story has dominated the front pages for the past 2 weeks: the US and Israel’s war with Iran. The events of the past fortnight have been tumultuous: an Ayatollah, who had led Iran for 36 years, killed; Iran blanketed its Gulf nation neighbours with missiles; the price of petrol skyrocketed whilst the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Whilst there is no formal objective for the attack, officials have made it very clear that they would like to see regime change in Iran. The press’s decision to focus on this, instead of, Rachel Reeves’s Spring Statement in which forecasts for economic growth weakened, or Peter Mandelson demanding £500,000 from the British government after he was fired for his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, suggests how serious the geopolitical implications of this conflict are. Even the Financial Times refused to lead with the Spring Statement. 

Iran, a country of 90 million, is located in the oil-rich Middle East. According to OPEC, it has the third largest oil reserve of any nation on Earth, making its domestic stability essential for global stability. For the past decades, Iran has been an adversary of the United States and Israel- in 1979, the Western-friendly Shah of Iran was overthrown because of his links to the West and autocratic reign over the country. It was replaced by a theocratic Islamic Republic, who have vehemently opposed the US and Israel. More recently, attempts to starve Iran of a nuclear weapon have been central to discussion of the nation. But they may well have backfired.

We cannot forget that the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a repressed period for the Iranian people- women were treated like second-class citizens, whilst homosexuals and religious minorities were oppressed and, in some cases, faced penalties as extreme as capital punishment. Principally it is a good thing that the former Ayatollah is dead. But one questions the motives of this attack. Did Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel whose barbaric attacks and blockades on Gaza have killed 72,000 civilians, really engage in this conflict out of the goodness of his own heart? This same question applies to President Trump. Most likely, both men are engaged to protect their own careers, but to what extent will these factors continue this war? 

In this article, I’ll recall the events of this conflict, explain its politics and consequences and ask what is next for the Middle East.

Chronology

In the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the Shah of Iran was overthrown as a result of anger towards his absolute power, and the country transitioned into an Islamic Republic. From that event until earlier this year, the country has been run by two theocrats- Khomeini and then Khamenei. In recent years, tensions have heated between the West and Iran. The latter exchanged missiles with Israel in 2024, and last year, the Twelve-Day War culminated in the US bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. In January, tens of thousands of protesters were killed by the Iranian government for protesting amid economic turmoil caused by sanctions imposed by the West, after the termination of the Iran Nuclear Deal- negotiated by Obama, it lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for the country agreeing to not build a nuclear weapon. 

On the morning of 28 February 2026, Israel and the US launched joint attacks on Iran. For the Israelis, this was the last chance to challenge the leadership of Iran because US public opinion of Israel has drained as a result of the Gaza War, and Democrats are unlikely to accept another one of Donald Trump’s wars. Recent investigations from a wide range of news outlets, including the BBC and New York Times, suggest that it was the United States who were responsible for a missile strike on a girl’s school, the Minab School, in southern Iran, killing between 160 and 180 people, most of whom were schoolchildren. This brutal and indefensible attack raises the question of Trump’s motives in Iran- why did the US hit a girl’s school, killing hundreds of women, when the primary objective of this war is to liberate Iranian women? 

Hours later, reports were spreading about the potential death of Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It was an Israeli missile which took out the former Ayatollah, along with his daughter, daughter-in-law, son-in-law and granddaughter at Khamenei’s compound in Tehran. The ease with which the US and Israel- aided by the CIA who had tracked the movements of the Ayatollah- eliminated key figures in Iran is astonishing. Among the Iranian people, mixed reactions. Some were delighted that the repressive and nasty Supreme Leader had fallen, whilst others were sorrowfully mourning his death- but the regime maintained order, and protesting was unwelcomed.

Retaliatory strikes by Iran targeted its military bases in Gulf neighbour states, who had not been involved in strikes on the country, and in Israel itself. Dubai, a city of extreme wealth and opulence, suddenly faced a reality check when its airport was closed for 3 days, and its civilian infrastructure was damaged. Similar scenes are unfolding in Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain. As a result of this conflict, around 14 civilians died in the Gulf states, and dozens more were injured. However, on 7 March, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised for the attacks on neighbouring Gulf states, and has vowed that they will stop, unless attacks are perpetrated by those countries.

Iran has funded multiple proxy groups in the Middle East, most notably Hezbollah. Translated into “Islamic Resistance in Lebanon”, the group is estimated to receive $700 million from Iran, according to The Jerusalem Post. Hezbollah’s involvement in this conflict has been very prominent- the group has launched “defensive” strikes on Israel, which have descended into another conflict. The Lebanese health minister says that 394 people have died in Israeli-Hezbollah strikes, a number which will continue to increase. Hezbollah has also driven conflict elsewhere in the region, when it hit British RAF base Akrotiri in Cyprus with a drone. The base has also nearly been the victim of numerous other drone attacks, which it had intercepted. Perhaps this shows that this war is becoming truly global. 

Politics

In a bid to maintain power, Iranian leadership knew that they had to convey order after the death of the former Ayatollah. A temporary leadership council was formed, consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Guardian councillor Alireza Arafi, and Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i. Meanwhile, rumours spread over who was truly leading the nation. Rather unsurprisingly, the conclave of members of the Iranian Assembly of Experts agreed on 8 March that it would appoint Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the former Ayatollah, as the successor to his father. 

Perhaps Mojtaba is even worse than his father. The Atlantic Council described him as “one of the most ideologically extremist clerics”, whilst the Washington Institute states that he is favourable towards building nuclear weapons. If the new Supreme Leader is even more extreme than his father, what is the point of this conflict? Furthermore, if the new Supreme Leader is determined to build a nuclear weapon, and use it perhaps in Israel, has this conflict simply been an act of national suicide for the US and Israel? Fundamentally, the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei to Ayatollah shows that the US and Israel didn’t think about the long-term implications of an attack. In a meeting with German Chancellor Freidrich Merz, President Trump admitted that his strikes had also killed key military figures who the US wanted to succeed the former Ayatollah- in a similar way to their intervention in Venezuela earlier this year. All this suggests that the initial attack was careless and ill-considered. The US didn’t have a plan for the day of, let alone day two. Therefore, once again, one can only question the motives of Trump and Netanyahu. 

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Closer to home, conversation is also dominated by the Iran conflict. However, the United Kingdom has only been indirectly involved in the conflict. On top of several drone strikes on RAF Akrotiri, the UK has allowed the United States to use British military bases, mainly RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, for “defensive” actions to strike Iranian missile sites. Expectedly, this decision proved controversial among the British public. The left- abhorred by Israeli and US war crimes and fuelled by a desire for peace- criticised Starmer for his involvement in this attack, whilst the right criticised Starmer for not getting involved enough. Even Trump said that “Starmer is no Winston Churchill.”

Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, both of the right, urged Starmer to allow the US to use UK military bases, with the former going even further, stating that international law should be no excuse for attacking Iran. However, days after, both leaders reversed their support. Interestingly, at an event for Jewish News in London, former prime minister Tony Blair criticised Starmer for refusing to support the Americans. Blair has denied these allegations. Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey actually praised Starmer for his handling of the conflict, whilst Green party leader Zack Polanski called for Starmer to end support for the US and Israel. UK public opinion is broadly against the conflict. 

A nuanced position can be a good one- and it is admirable for Davey to cross party lines to support the UK government in its foreign affairs.

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180 people, most of whom were women, died in a US strike on a girl’s school, and yet the Americans are engaging in this operation to liberate the Iranian women. This operation looks incompetent and unplanned. What is the real motive for the United States and Israel?

Perhaps President Trump isn’t truly engaged in this war for regime change. We know that he doesn’t have many fundamental beliefs, especially on foreign policy. Instead, his motives lay in protecting his own political career in the runup to the midterm elections in November. We know that Donald Trump had an extensive relationship with Jeffrey Epstein- the two were good friends for 15 years, shown by Trump’s use of Epstein’s private plane seven times, and multiple indecent comments by Trump regarding underage women. Attention was drawn to this matter last year, when in May, Trump’s own Attorney General Pam Bondi told him that he featured consistently in the Epstein files. A campaign to release the files resulted in a reluctant White House to agree, and in January, 3 million documents relating to Jeffrey Epstein were published by the Department of Justice, including hundreds of thousands of pictures and videos. For the world’s elite, devastation. Three public figures have been arrested due to their ties with Epstein- former Norwegian prime minister Thorbjørn Jagland, former Prince Andrew, and British politician and diplomat Peter Mandelson. All three are now having their titles stripped, reputation ruined and potential imprisonment. According to an investigation by American media outlet NPR, there are more documents yet to be uncovered- notably ones centring on Trump’s abuse of a minor. If these allegations were correct, the end of the Trump presidency would be in sight- therefore, he must create a distraction. Iran is that perfect distraction. As a result, the US operation, codenamed Epic Fury by the Pentagon, is known by many as “Operation Epstein Fury.”

Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel also faces trouble ahead. Since a de jure ceasefire, which didn’t end the conflict but certainly removed attention from it, was agreed last autumn in Gaza, Netanyahu has been searching for an alternative to keep his forever war ongoing. Later this year, in October, elections will happen for the Knesset- Israeli Parliament. Similar to other parliamentary systems, if Netanyahu loses the elections, he will lose the prime ministership. If he loses the prime ministership, he will likely be sent to prison- either in The Hague, for his various war crimes, or domestically in Israel for corruption charges. Polling is sporadic and no real consensus can be formed, but it suggests a close neck-and-neck battle between the government and opposition. This means that Netanyahu and his coalition must continue to be at war to improve popularity or claim that national security concerns can delay or cancel the elections. We know that this method can work- until October 7th, 2023, Netanyahu was unpopular and his approval ratings were in the dump. However, the patriotic and nationalist “rally around the flag” effect saved Bibi. This strategy could work again in Iran. 

Therefore, both President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are using Iran as a strategic way to maintain power, not to achieve the objectives of their operation. 

Consequences

Many British people could perceive actions in the Middle East, a far away land, as irrelevant. Fundamentally, the majority of people wouldn’t choose to holiday there or have a deep connection to the region. However, the region possesses perhaps the most useful natural resource of them all: oil. The Persian Gulf produces around ⅓ of the world's oil, and consequently, this region has been one of the most important on Earth. After all, oil is essential to modern humanity- whether we like it or not- and is responsible for fuelling cars, heating buildings and producing electricity. Iran has the world’s third largest reserve of oil, supplying the vast majority of it to China, and smaller percentages to India and East Asia. Other Gulf nations prefer to send their oil to a larger range of countries. Therefore, a war in Iran will always cause major disruption and havoc to global oil chains and, by extension, the global economy. 

The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-nautical mile long strait separating Iran and the United Arab Emirates. It is the only shipping route out of the Persian Gulf, making it one of the most geostrategic choke points on Earth. One-fifth of the world’s natural liquified gas passes through the strait every year. In response to US-Israeli attacks, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to set fire to any ship who attempts to pass through the strait. Since the Strait’s closure, 21 ships have been attacked by Iran- with some sustaining light damage whilst others set ablaze, killing crew members. As a result, very few ships have passed through the Strait. Consequently, little oil can move out of the crucial Persian Gulf, and prices have skyrocketed. The cost of a barrel of Brent crude oil surpassed $100 for the first time in four years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, eventually rising to $126 per barrel. A release of 400 million barrels of oil from the International Energy Agency, equating to ⅓ of its reserves, has done little to ease off the hike in prices. This surge in oil prices will continue, shaping the most catastrophic scenes for the global oil market since the 1970s. Meanwhile, the price of other essential resources will rise. Around ⅓ of the world’s fertilizer travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Its closure will result in a havoc for farmers across the globe, and also increase the price of food. Similar effects will happen for polyethylene (plastic) and other products.

A cost-of-living crisis, initially started as a result of COVID-19, but propelled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has defined the 2020s for people across the globe. You can drive an electric car, live in an eco home and grow your own electricity, but in an age of globalisation, no one can escape an increase in the cost of essential goods. This conflict will only continue the anger expressed by millions across the globe towards high prices. Trump and Netanyahu, was this truly a good idea?

What’s next?

War in Iran will continue to rage. 

Meanwhile, the threat of a US ground invasion of Iran using troops looks increasingly likely. On 13 March, Iran’s key military infrastructure on the island of Kharg, just 25 miles off the coast of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, was struck by the United States. This island is home to 90% of Iranian oil products and 30 million barrels of oil. It would be an obvious starting point for a US ground invasion because of its strategic importance, proximity to the Iranian coastline and ease of capture. America’s decision to strike the island suggests a ground invasion could be on the horizon. But it would be extremely difficult. Approximately 4 times the geographic size of Iraq and double its population, Iran’s mountainous terrain makes an invasion impossible. If it is lucky, the US might be able to capture a few Iranian cities on the Persian Gulf before they can go any further. There are very few positives of a ground invasion- a toppling of the Iranian regime wouldn’t be any more likely to happen than if the current strategy continued. However, it doesn’t seem implausible according to statements made by American officials. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the “US is willing to go as far as we need to ensure that Iran’s nuclear ambitions are never achieved,” whilst White House spokesman Caroline Leavitt said that President Trump wouldn’t rule out a ground invasion. Trump himself has not been shy to reject the idea of few US casualties in Iran. Regardless, given the treacherous terrain and size of the nation of Iran, combined with its military might, a ground invasion would be impossible. 

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This could turn into yet another forever war. 20 years ago, the US struggled to capture Afghanistan and Iraq, both Middle Eastern countries nowhere near as difficult to control as Iran. Within weeks, both sides could be struggling to find ammunition- Al-Jazeera reported that the US could face a shortage of high-end interceptors and munitions, whilst Israel claims to have destroyed ⅔ of Iran’s missile launchers. This means that a slow and sluggish war could persist, with neither side establishing a victory over the other. 

Both Trump and Netanyahu must be engaged in a conflict to maintain their power. Both face elections in the autumn, and could prolong this conflict to ensure that they remain in power. Therefore, threatening, or potentially engaging in, a ground invasion could be the difference between power and prison. It is clear that Donald Trump has an urge to remain in power, and has used this tactic of foreign interference on multiple occasions. Days into this year, he captured Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro. He is also setting his sights on another Latin American country: Cuba. The US has blockaded Venezuelan oil from entering the Caribbean country and would like to topple the Communist regime. Perhaps under a Trump Presidency, war will be the normality. 

Iranian leadership will likely also want to continue this conflict. Understandably, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is outraged at the US for killing his father, wife and sister, whilst injuring other family members. Coupled with his desire for more hardline policies, Iran will be reluctant to withdraw from this conflict. 

For my father’s generation, Desert Storm was a success. It was efficient and achieved its objectives: liberate Kuwait and damage Iraqi territory and Saddam Hussein. For mine, Epic Fury likely has a tumultuous, troubling and long future ahead.