Keir Starmer's Most Turbulent Week Yet

Sir Keir Starmer has endured his most turbulent week as prime minister. So far. At many points over the previous seven days, the Labour leader’s resignation looked not only inevitable, but also imminent. Whilst his departure has likely been delayed by a few months, threats from challengers continue to mount. 

Poor communication, indecision and a perception that life is not improving since Starmer’s Labour Party entered office nearly two years ago on the promise of Change culminated in a disaster for Labour at the ballot box on Thursday, the 7th of May. Labour lost 1,500 council seats; control of 38 councils- many to the Greens and Reform UK; control of the Welsh government after electorally dominating Wales since 1922; and had a lackluster performance in Scotland. All eyes pointed to Starmer. 

Catherine West, a relatively unknown backbench MP from North London and former junior Foreign Office minister, urged Starmer’s cabinet to identify and appoint a successor, or she would threaten the prime minister in a leadership election. Given around 30 MPs had also urged Starmer to resign in wake of their party’s local election results, West potentially had some momentum. However she had made it clear that she didn’t want to become prime minister, instead her announcement was more of a “stalking horse” strategy to pose a leadership election including a more viable figure, such as Wes Streeting. West even admitted to not knowing she needed the support of ⅕ of Labour MPs to challenge Starmer.

For a challenger to be elected as the Leader of the Labour Party, they must be a sitting MP. 20% of the party’s MPs, currently equating to 81, must also nominate them to lead the party; the candidate must have the support of either 5% of Constituency Labour Parties or 3 affiliated organisations that represent at least 5% of the affiliate membership (including 2 trade unions). Then, they must win a vote of Labour Party members and affiliated trade union members. The Labour Party has 11 affiliated trade unions, representing millions of workers, and any member of an affiliated trade union can opt-in to be an affiliated trade union member of the Labour Party, meaning they can vote in a leadership election. 

In a bid to save his premiership, Starmer delivered a speech on Monday, 11 May. “Like every government, we've made mistakes... but we got the big political choices right,” Starmer claimed, promising to prove the doubters wrong. Whilst the speech offered little in terms of policy, it was able to fend off West’s challenge, who instead urged the prime minister to resign in September, and sent an email to all Labour MPs to request they agree with her. 

By the end of Monday, the number of Labour MPs pressuring Starmer to resign rose to around 80. Four parliamentary private secretaries- effectively a bag-carrying role for aspiring ministers- resigned and joined the colleagues asking for Starmer’s resignation. 

On Tuesday, 12 May, four junior ministers resigned from the government and declared the prime ministers should resign. Among them, Jess Philips, minister for Safeguarding, who had previously stood for the Labour leadership and became a well-respected voice in the party. 

Reports from early in the week also speculated that numerous senior cabinet ministers, including Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, told Starmer that he should resign. 

On Wednesday, 13 May, King Charles III delivered the gracious speech from the throne, nicknamed King’s Speech, a list of the government’s key agenda in the State Opening of Parliament. This began the second parliamentary session since the general election. It was announced that British Steel will be nationalised; the use of jury trials in England and Wales will be abolished for most crimes; and measures to make it harder for migrants to gain settled status in the UK will be introduced, among other policies. “Not now Andy,” one MP quipped as Blackrod knocked on the door of the House of Commons to summon MPs to the King in the House of Lords, referring to the rumours about the Greater Manchester Mayor’s return. 

Murmurs about the Labour Party’s leadership continued to swirl. In the later part of the week, the plot thickened. The three main contenders- Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner all made consequential decisions which will shape the following months for Sir Keir Starmer. 

In this article, I’ll assess all likely, and potential, contenders for the leadership of the Labour Party, if an election happens in the coming months. Given the gloomy mood among Labour backbenches, it’s likely that one will. 

Andy Burnham

Born in Aintree, raised in Cheshire and the attendee of a state school, Andy Burnham takes pride in his northern roots. He read English at the University of Cambridge and was a special adviser before entering politics. From 2001 until 2017, Burnham represented Leigh, on the edge of Greater Manchester, as its Member of Parliament. Under Gordon Brown’s government, Burnham rose to health secretary, where he began the introduction of a National Care Service, which began with free social care for elderly and disabled patients. This was scrapped by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government. In opposition, Burnham stood to be the Leader of the Labour Party twice, failing both times- in 2010, he won fourth place and in 2015, he won second place.

In 2017, Burnham left Parliament and reinvented himself as Mayor of Greater Manchester, where he has since brought local buses into public ownership, making Manchester the first mayoral authority to such powers. He earned the nickname “King of the North” for his leadership strengths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Burnham now enjoys the highest popularity ratings of any Labour politician in the UK, and exceedingly high popularity in Manchester. 

The ongoing collapse of Starmer’s government has opened the third opportunity for Andy Burnham to succeed Starmer as prime minister. This one may be the most viable.

Burnham’s relatively lofty popularity prompted media to first tout him as a successor to Sir Keir Starmer as Starmer’s favourability fell in mid-2025. Before Labour’s 2025 autumn conference, Burnham was a key figure in the creation of a new Labour-associated organisation Mainstream. This perpetuated rumours about a return to Westminster. Despite a series of high-profile media events at Labour’s conference, Burnham’s rising star was eventually shot when Starmer gave a convincing leader’s speech. 

On 22 January 2026, MP for Gorton and Denton, a Greater Manchester suburb, Andrew Gwynne resigned, citing ill health. Many speculated that Gwynne had agreed with Burnham that he would resign as a Member of Parliament, so Burnham could replace him, although there is little evidence for this claim. Two days later, Burnham announced his candidacy to be the Labour candidate in the subsequent by-election, minutes before the deadline. Given Burnham was a sitting directly-elected mayor, he required the permission of the Labour National Executive Committee (NEC)’s officers. Senior Labour figures, including the party’s deputy leader Lucy Powell; health secretary Wes Streeting; Mayor of London Sadiq Khan; and energy secretary and former leader Ed Miliband all endorsed Burnham’s application to stand as the candidate at a Fabian Society conference. On 25 January, the NEC officers voted by a majority of 8-1 against Burnham standing as the candidate in the by-election. Eventually, the Green Party won the tightly-contested election in a battle against Reform UK. However, hypothetical polling in which Andy Burnham was the Labour candidate suggested that he would win the by-election by a landslide. 

On Thursday, 14 May, Labour MP for Makerfield Josh Simons announced his resignation from Parliament. For many, this was a surprise. Simons was not the most obvious Burnham supporter. He had previously served as the director of Labour Together, a think tank which supported Keir Starmer at the 2020 Labour leadership election and had been directed by Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s former chief of staff. Personally, it appeared as if Simons had great ambition- he was already a junior minister before he was forced to resign in a smear campaign scandal for his role at Labour Together. As a minister, Simons had also described life in the UK for under 50s as sh*t. 

Makerfield, a constituency named after the town of Ashton-in-Makerfield, is around 15 miles from central Manchester. The town is sandwiched between the two titans of the northwest- Manchester and Liverpool. 

Victory for Andy Burnham is far from inevitable. It will be a tough uphill battle for the Greater Manchester Mayor. At the last general election, Labour won a majority of just 5,400, whilst Reform UK placed second, winning over double their national vote share in the constituency. Last week, Reform UK won all but 24 of 25 seats at elections for Wigan Borough Council. In the eight wards contested in the Makerfield constituency, Reform UK won a total of 50.4% of the vote, over Labour’s 22.7%. MRP polling from Nowcast- the second most accurate MRP predictor at the last general election- suggests Reform UK would win the seat at the next general election with a majority of 22% of the vote. 

Reform UK will “through absolutely everything at it,” said its leader. So will the other parties. The Green Party have announced they will field a candidate, despite their former leader Caroline Lucas urging the party to stand down. If they are adamant to stand a candidate, how committed are parties such as the Greens to preventing a Reform government? It won’t be a shoe-in for Reform UK either- leaders of both the Conservatives and Restore Britain have announced their parties will stand candidates. One thing that is certain is Ashton-in-Makerfield will become the epicentre of the British political universe over the next few weeks. 

The by-election is expected to be held in June. The Government’s Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds will start the process of a by-election by formally asking Parliament to start the election in a process called “moving the writ.” Once the writ is moved, the by-election must take place between 21 and 27 working days later. Given elections in the UK since 1931 have happened on Thursday, partly to avoid days when voters would be preoccupied at the pub or church, the date of the by-election could occur on 18 or 25 June. 

Labour’s NEC gave Andy Burnham permission to run as the Labour candidate in the Makerfield by-election. Next, he will need to win the support of members of the local party on 21 May. Once he has, he faces the other parties. If Burnham wins, then he will prove himself as the candidate in a bellwether seat destined to vote for Reform and pave the way for Nigel Farage to become prime minister. If he loses, which appears to be more likely, the Labour party will be plunged into chaos as a leadership election happens without him, whilst the party will be seriously bruised and Burnham’s own political career will end. 

In the event of a Burnham victory in the by-election, to become prime minister he must command the support of 20% of Labour MPs, a task which he is likely to achieve. In fact, there is a possibility that his unique levels of high popularity will mean that no candidate stands against him, crowning him Labour leader. After winning support of constituency parties or trade unions, Burnham will compete in a vote by members in the alternative vote system. Burnham is likely to win a leadership contest by members. 41% of Labour members said they’d rank him as the candidate they most want to see lead the party in a Survation poll- placing Burnham in first place for first-preference votes.

Once in Downing Street, Burnham claims he will introduce wealth taxes, proportional representation and rejoin the EU. History has shown that Burnham frequently changes his mind and drifts from policy to policy whenever it suits his political interests. A Blairite, a Brownite, a Milibandite and a Corbynite walk into a pub. ‘Hello, Mr Burnham,’ says the barman, goes the old joke. 

Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting was born in early 1983 in east London to teenaged parents. Raised in a council flat with 5 brothers, one sister and a stepsister, Streeting attended a state school in Westminster. His maternal grandfather was a repeat criminal, whose wife gave birth to Streeting’s mother whilst she was imprisoned in the same cell as Chrisine Keeler, who simultaneously had an affair with the Conservative defence secretary John Profumo and Soviet spy Yevgeny Ivanov at the peak of the Cold War.

Streeting studied history at the University of Cambridge, where he campaigned against the closure of the university’s architecture department. After university, he was President of the National Union of Students and worked for a think tank. Streeting was elected as a member of northeast London council, Redbridge- where he rose to deputy leader. In 2015, Streeting became the MP for Ilford North. He was appointed to the Shadow Cabinet of Sir Keir Starmer, where he held a series of positions. At the 2024 general election, he narrowly won re-election over pro-Gaza independent Leanne Mohamed. Streeting defeated Mohamed by just 528 votes. 

When Labour entered government, Streeting was made Health Secretary. In the role, Streeting was tasked with repairing the NHS after waiting lists tripled under the previous Conservative government and hospitals were on the brink of collapse. On his last day in the role, it was announced that the number of people waiting for NHS treatment was 515,000 less than when Streeting was appointed health secretary. During his tenure, Streeting also generated some controversy as he described the British Medical Association as a “cartel-like organisation,” whilst it was revealed that he had accepted over 60% of donations, or £300,000, from individuals and corporations with links to private healthcare. Streeting also extended a ban on puberty blockers for children. 

On 14 May 2026, Wes Streeting announced his resignation as health secretary. In his resignation letter, he told Starmer “where we [the government] need vision, we have a vacuum. Where we need direction, we have drift.” This proceeded a 17-minute meeting between Starmer and Streeting in Downing Street, hours before the King’s Speech. 

Previously, Streeting made no secret about his leadership ambitions. In 2018, when asked who would be prime minister in 10 years, he said himself. As shadow health secretary, he told the Guardian that he’d die happy if he became leader of the Labour Party. Last November, Streeting was accused of being “on maneuvers" by Number 10, prompting him to tell BBC Breakfast “I’m a faithful… in fact, what you’ve seen from a silly No 10 source overnight is probably the worst attack on a faithful since Joe Marler was banished in The Traitors final.”

On Saturday, 16 May, Streeting appeared at the Progress think tank conference. He delared he’d run in a Labour leadership election. In his resignation letter, Streeting said that the leadership election should be a “battle of ideas.” He is also supporting Andy Burnham in the Makerfield by-election. 

Many obstacles stand in the way of Wes Streeting. Firstly, he must gain the support of 20% of Labour MPs. Whilst Streeting’s allies claim he has the threshold, Keir Starmer’s supporters claim that, after multiple rounds of tallying, Streeting only has the support of a maximum of 44 MPs. Given his record with the BMA, Streeting may also struggle to find the support of trade unions. Lastly, Streeting faces one challenging fact- he isn’t popular with party members. One Survation poll said that Starmer would defeat Streeting in a leadership election. 

Wes Streeting’s relationship with Peter Mandelson will also damage the former health secretary. The pair shared a close friendship, prompting Streeting to defend Mandelson before he was sacked as the UK Ambassador to the US, a scandal which has caused great disapproval for Starmer. Streeting said Mandelson shouldn’t be “guilty by association.” 

If Streeting became prime minister, his opponents on the backbenches would be furious. Soft left Labour MPs told Bloomberg that they’d removed Streeting faster than Truss, “He’d be lucky to outlast a lettuce... there would be no support for the Government... and we would challenge him.” 

In his speech to the Progress conference, Streeting said that the UK should rejoin the EU one day. He indicated that this could be achieved by a referendum promised in Labour’s next general election manifesto. 

Angela Rayner

Born in Stockport in 1980, Angela Rayner grew up on a council estate. Her mother couldn’t read or write- once she nearly fed Angela dog food instead of steak- so the former deputy prime minister was largely raised by her grandmother. Rayner left school at the age of 16 whilst pregnant and without qualifications. With the help of New Labour’s Sure Start, Rayner was able to work as a carer. She became a trade union representative, before rising through the ranks of Unison to be chair of their union in the northwest of England. 

In 2015, Rayner was elected as the Member of Parliament for Ashton-under-Lyne. Rayner defeated four candidates to be elected as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party in 2020. Serving under Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership, she acted like a John Prescott figure who attempted to bring Labour’s leadership closer to its roots. 

Rayner was an effective cabinet minister. When Labour entered government, she was appointed as deputy prime minister and housing secretary. She set Britain the target of building 1.5 million new homes by 2029, of which 40% would be council housing. Currently the government is behind on that target. Rayner also introduced the Employment Rights Act, which will ban the use of zero-hours contracts. In her responsibility for local government, Rayner often met with the leaders of devolved governments and English mayors. Rayner began the reorganisation of local government. 

In September 2025, she resigned from government after the prime minister’s independent advisor on Minister’s Interests declared that she had broken the ministerial code by not seeking further advice on the amount of tax she owed to HMRC. Rayner had underpaid £40,000 of stamp duty on a second home in Hove. 

Despite her return to the backbenches, rumours over Angela Rayner’s prime ministerial ambition remain. At a private meeting of the Burnham-linked group Mainstream in a Westminster pub, Rayner remarked that the "very survival of the Labour Party is at stake… we cannot just go through the motions in the face of decline… we're running out of time." The Guardian reported that, in the second half of 2026, Rayner intends to publish a memoir about her rise and fall.

Angela Rayner is popular among Labour members. Survation polling claimed that she would defeat Starmer in a leadership contest. Polling from her cabinet days suggested that she was the second most popular cabinet minister, with a net approval rating of 71% among Labour members. Her authentic charm makes her a hit in her own party.

On Thursday, 14 May, Angela Rayner proclaimed she had been cleared by HMRC of any wrongdoing after she settled the £40,000 she owed. This places her in prime position for a leadership contest. 

To win, Rayner would need the support of MPs and party members. This seems possible, given aforementioned polling concludes that she would defeat Sir Keir Starmer in a leadership election by a margin, albeit thin, of 4 points. In office, Rayner would likely accelerate her campaign for rights for workers and soften the government’s agenda to reduce immigration. 

It’s unclear whether Rayner would stand in a leadership election. In a recent interview, the former deputy prime minister said she wanted to “deliver as part of a team” whilst advocating for more change, but she didn’t explicitly rule out leading her party. If Andy Burnham stood in a leadership contest, it’s unlikely that Rayner would. Regardless, there is still an appetite, shared by all leadership contenders, for Rayner to return to the cabinet. 

The Alternatives

Former Labour leader Ed Miliband is one individual who has been floated as a successor to Keir Starmer. Miliband has served as the Member of Parliament for Doncaster North for the past 21 years. Under Gordon Brown, he was energy and climate change secretary. After defeating his brother, Miliband became leader of the Labour Party but lost the 2015 general election to David Cameron. Instead of flocking to the private sector, Miliband remained in Parliament and returned to the Cabinet in his old position, energy security and net zero secretary, when Labour entered government in 2024. Miliband, a pioneer of clean energy, has had a significant impact on UK government policy, as governments of both colours have followed his strategy for net zero.

Miliband is the most popular cabinet minister. In Survation polling of Labour members, Miliband had a net approval rating of 66%. The same polling also observed that he would defeat Starmer in a leadership election by a margin of 7 points, larger than Rayner’s lead. Above all, Miliband is popular among Labour members because he has previously won a contest in which he was elected by them. 

Ed Miliband has, however, lost a general election. In 2015, Labour was defeated by the Conservatives despite leading in the polls for much of the previous 5 years. Labour’s loss paved the way for Brexit and a further decade of Conservative government. One reason why Labour lost was Miliband’s personal approval rating, which was consistently training Conservative leader David Cameron’s. In 2015, 30% of Britons told Ipsos they do not like Ed Miliband but do like the Labour Party. Given Labour is about to enter a two-horse race with Reform UK to win the next general election, a popular leader is essential. 

Over the past week, little has emerged from Miliband’s camp. Not all hope is lost, as Miliband could stand as a candidate of the soft left of Labour if Andy Burnham is defeated in the Makerfield by-election. 

Al Carns is an impressive minister. As a newly-minted MP, first elected as the Member of Parliament for Birmingham Selly Oak, Carns is a former Royal Marine who served five tours of Afghanistan and advised three Conservative defence ministers. He currently serves as Minister for the Armed Forces. Last year, whilst serving as a minister, Carns sumitted Mount Everest using xenon gas. Carns has been suggested as a dark-horse candidate whose military background could appeal to many in Middle England. 

One final candidate at the next leadership election could be prime minister Sir Keir Starmer himself. Starmer has repeated that he will be a candidate if anyone challenges him and that he is up for a fight. One of his ministers told the BBC that Starmer shouldn’t be written off. During the past week of government chaos, over 150 Labour MPs have announced their support for the prime minister and declared now isn’t the correct time for a leadership contest. Many in Labour, and across the British public, warn against consistent leadership elections, otherwise Labour could look like the Conservatives. The prime minister is still delivering his agenda, which was extended when a flurry of bills was announced last Wednesday. Survation polling suggests Starmer would defeat Al Carns, Darren Jones, Bridget Phillipson, Louise Haigh, Yvette Cooper, Shabana Mahmood and Lucy Powell all in head-to-head leadership elections by members. Starmer’s name will automatically be placed on a ballot at a potential leadership contest, as he is currently the leader of the Labour Party.

Steve Richards explains why the politicians who failed to reach Downing Street never became prime minister in his book, “The Prime Ministers We Never Had.” At this leadership contest, Burnham will fail because he lost the by-election; Streeting won’t walk into Number 10 as a result of his precarious relationships with the Labour right; and Rayner will be rejected for her brash style and previous scandal. Starmer, however, has reached Number 10. For the stability of the country, many hope he will stay