The Battle for Congress

After a contentious and polarizing campaign, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States of America in November 2024. To propel him to victory, he combined a wide coalition of working-class Hispanic, Black and Asian voters with the Republican Party’s usual white, non-college-educated and rural supporters. One issue unified them –  the economy. Two months before the election, a Pew Research Center poll found that 81% of U.S. voters said that the economy would be very important to their vote in the upcoming presidential election. 

On January 20, 2025, Trump started his second presidency. He blocked asylum seekers entering the country. Before restarting the program predominantly for white South Africans, the administration also froze all refugee processing. As a result, the number of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border dropped to its lowest in 50 years. Then Trump’s focus shifted inward. Through a combination of arrests and deportation flights, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deported around 540,000 individuals within one year of his inauguration. ICE’s aggression was also directed toward Americans. In January 2026, two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis were killed by ICE agents on separate occasions. Backlash ensued. Recent polling indicates approval of Trump’s handling of immigration slumping to a net negative 19 percent.

Iran is the nation that has dominated Trump’s foreign policy. In June 2025, the U.S. attacked three nuclear facilities in the nation in an attempt to destroy its nuclear capabilities. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran. Several members of the Iranian regime, including the Ayatollah, were either killed or severely injured. In response, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged and chaotic stalemate followed. So far, the price of war has cost the U.S. government $113 billion and the global economy $2.2 trillion.

Trump slightly reduced federal income on tax tips, overtime and Social Security, although the cuts were a far cry from his policy of abolishing them. Benefits in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act were outweighed by the tumultuous impact of Liberation Day. On April 2, 2025, the average rate of tariffs, an import tax paid by the importer, levied by the U.S. rose from 2.5% to 22.5%. Compounded with rising fuel prices caused by the war in Iran, tariffs proved disastrous for the U.S. economy. Inflation spiked, growth stagnated and consumer confidence plummeted. 

Trump’s overall approval rating sits at negative 25 percent. In three months, Americans head to the polls to decipher control of Congress. If Republicans somehow maintain control, then the rogue Trump continues. If not, then Democrats will use every trick in the book to ensure he doesn’t.

In this article, I’ll examine the upcoming midterm elections. 

Midterms

In the middle of a president's four-year term, he faces his greatest electoral test. Control of Congress is decided through elections for the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. Together, these two chambers form the legislative branch of government, which enacts laws, funds federal agencies and holds the White House to account. On November 3, 2026, all 435 seats in the House are elected, alongside 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Thirty-six states hold elections for their governors. 

Primaries are elections in which political parties select candidates to contest a general election. On March 3, 2026, primary season began with Democrats and Republicans in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas all electing nominees to contest the November 3 election. It will conclude on September 15 in Delaware. Between the two dates, primaries took place in scattered states roughly every week. 

House

Republicans currently control the House of Representatives. Led by Speaker Mike Johnson, the Grand Old Party (GOP) won 220 seats in the 2024 election, narrowly defeating the Democrats’ 215. 218 seats are required for a majority. This means Democrats need to net gain of three districts to control the chamber. Each district elects one individual to represent them in Congress using the first-past-the-post system. On average, districts house 765,000 residents. 

The Cook Political Report (CPR) estimate a district’s competitiveness by several factors, including its political makeup and environment. Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter describes 18 seats as “toss ups,” elections where neither candidate has an advantage. These will ultimately decide the makeup of the House. Republicans are defending 14, while Democrats are defending 4. This places the GOP on the backfoot. 

Described by the CPR as a district with even support for Democrats or Republicans, Arizona’s 6th has been narrowly won, and lost, by President Trump in previous elections. Republican Juan Ciscomani faces Democrat Joanna Mendoza. The district’s population is primarily located in the suburbs of Tucson. Michigan’s 7th has voted for the Electoral College winner in the past five presidential elections. It includes the state capital of Lansing. In November, Republican Tom Barret will contend with Democrat William Lawrence. Iowa’s 1st, an urban and rural district nestled in the southeast of the state, usually votes for the GOP. Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks rivals Democrat Christina Bohannan. Although the three districts are geographically distinct, they share two characteristics. First, incumbent Republicans are seeking re-election. Second, polling suggests that those GOP representatives will lose their election bids. Voters attribute concern over the rising cost-of-living as the reason for supporting Democrats. 

Before the primary season, redistricting dominated conversation around November's midterms. In July 2025, Trump urged Texas to redraw its congressional districts in order to maintain his party’s grip on the House. Five new Republican-leaning seats were created. California, led by Democrats, responded in kind. This provoked a string of states gerrymandering, the practice of unfairly drawing districts to favor one party over the other, across America. GOP leadership estimate their party can gain as many as 14 seats due to these efforts. 

At Trump’s first midterms in 2018, Democrats gained 41 seats. For them, it was their greatest gain in over forty years. At the time, Trump’s approval rating was negative 10 percent. It is now 15 points lower. Generic ballots ask voters whether they would rather vote for a generic Democrat or Republican in the next congressional election. Currently, Democrats lead Republicans by 6.4 points. Considering a blue wave seized control of Congress in 2018, a blue tsunami is entirely likely. We predict Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives. 

Senate

Republicans control the Senate. In 2024, the GOP trounced Democrats to win the chamber by a margin of 53–47. Senators are equally divided into three classes, each elected every six years on rotation, so all 33 seats in Class 2 are up for grabs in November. Furthermore, two special elections will take place to replace JD Vance and Marco Rubio, who exchanged seats in the Senate for the Cabinet when Trump entered office. If each party wins 50 seats in the Senate, then the chamber will remain in Republican hands due to Vice President Vance’s role as tie-breaker. There Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win it.

The clearest path for Democrats gaining the Senate travels through the swing states. 

Democratic governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper, from 2017 until 2025, left office with widespread support. Months later, he announced his candidacy for the 2026 Senate election. In a state won by Trump by 3 points, nominating a candidate with a positive approval rating of 16 percent was a no-brainer. Cooper leads opinion polls over the Republican with a margin of seven points. 

Maine is the only state represented by a Republican in the Senate which Trump failed to win in all three of his bids for the presidency. Susan Collins, the 73-year-old moderate Republican, seeks a sixth term in office. Meanwhile the Democratic primary was one of the most tumultuous in 2026. First, an oyster farmer named Graham Platner became a sensation when he launched a progressive campaign supported by Bernie Sanders. Next, 77-year-old Democratic governor Janet Mills threw her hat into the ring. If she was elected, then she would’ve become the oldest freshman senator in U.S. history. Ultimately her campaign lacked the finances to compete with Platner, so she withdrew. In June, Platner was elected as the Democratic nominee with over 70% of the vote. His candidacy was riddled with controversy. Misogynistic social media posts and tattoos with Nazi connotations led to some caution, although the final straw was an allegation of sexual assault. On July 10, 2026, Platner withdrew from the race. Consequently, an emergency convention was held, resulting in Troy Jackson replacing Platner. Once again, polls suggest the Democrat is likely to unseat the Republican due to the financial fallout from Trump’s war in Iran. 

A Democratic Senate also requires the party to hold its current seats. 

In 2020, Democrat Jon Ossoff won a Senate election in Georgia with a margin of 1.2 percent. Four years later, Trump won the state with a larger majority. As a result, many thought Ossoff was bound to remain a one-term senator. “Ossoff to top list of at-risk incumbents for 2026,” headlines wrote. As a result of voter dissatisfaction with the cost of living, Ossoff leads his Republican opponent in opinion polls by a gap of seven points. 

A different story unfolds in Michigan. Democratic incumbent Gary Peters retired, so Democrats selected a candidate to replace him. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated centrist Haley Stevens to become the party’s nominee. He faces Republican Mike Rogers. Firstly, El-Sayed must gain the support of low-income voters who supported Stevens. Then, he will need to discard Rogers’ likely approach of branding him with the socialist label. El-Sayed also must contend with the displeased centrist wing of his party. Democrats hope he can accomplish that over the following three months. 

To cement victory, Democratic Party leaders and strategists plan to flip a series of Republican seats in the Midwest. 

Amid the red wave of 2024, three-term Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown lost his Senate seat in Ohio to the GOP. Meanwhile, Ohio senator JD Vance resigned- the vice presidency prevented him from serving in the chamber- and Jon Husted was appointed as his replacement. Under Ohio law, a special election must occur in November. Brown, the Democratic nominee, faces Husted, the Republican nominee, in the upcoming contest. Trump's war in Iran and gas prices tilt the opinion polls in Brown’s favor. 

Finally, Texas may be the jewel in the Republican crown about to fall. Democrats last won a statewide election there in 1994. The GOP primary, contested between incumbent senator John Cornyn and the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton, led to a runoff easily won by the latter. Previously, he was indicted on two counts of first-degree securities fraud. James Talarico defeated Jasmine Crockett by six points to become the Democratic nominee. Talarico uses his fervent Christian beliefs to fight for a myriad of progressive policies. Support for universal health care and taxing the rich are among them. References to religion appeal to the staunchly Christian Bible Belt state of Texas. Consequently, Talarico leads Paxton in most opinion polls. Democrats are attempting a similar offensive in Iowa. 

For Democrats, the challenge of flipping control of the Senate is colossal. It was a feat they failed to achieve during the first Trump presidency. North Carolina and Maine appear as highly likely pickups, Georgia and Michigan are probably holds, while Ohio, Texas and Iowa are longshots, although they are essential for a nationwide blue wave. In the scenario in which all seven contests are won by Democrats, they would gain control of the Senate with a margin of 52–48. This means they can only afford to lose in one state. Although the task of winning seems demanding, we predict Democrats will gain control of the U.S. Senate. 

Intriguing contests are also happening in gubernatorial elections. Democrat Xavier Becerra, who served as President Biden’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, faces Steve Hilton, a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, in the election to succeed term-limited Gavin Newsom as governor of California. In Ohio, a tight race between Republican rising star Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton is unfolding. Democrats have not won the Ohio governorship since 2006. James Fishback, the longshot candidate in Florida’s Republican gubernatorial primary, gained widespread attention for a series of far-right comments. Republican Byron Donalds is widely expected to defeat Fishback before winning the general election in deep-red Florida. Progressives hope they can elect single mother and bartender Wisconsin’s Francesca Hong as the first socialist governor of a U.S. state.

Conclusion

Midterm elections are often portrayed as referenda on whichever party holds the White House. From the cornfields of Iowa to deindustrialized towns of Ohio and expanding suburbs of Georgia, concerns over affordability will drive November’s referendum to produce a resounding rejection of Republicans. In polling by Emerson College, no issue rivals the influence of the economy on the choice of likely voters. The subject which won Trump the White House two years earlier may lose him Congress. “It's the economy, stupid,” declared political strategist James Carville.

The most interesting characteristic of the incoming blue wave are the people who form it. Across the country, progressives who advocate for higher taxes on the wealthy, universal healthcare and an end to American support of Israel are winning Democratic primaries. This drastically contrasts the position of the age-old status quo. Six candidates from the DSA, America’s largest socialist group, are Democratic nominees for Congressional elections, of whom only one currently serves in the Capitol. Following wins by progressives in New York and Seattle last year, many claim a new dawn developing for the Democratic Party. 

With control of both chambers of Congress, Democrats hope they can appropriate, investigate and legislate to produce a lame-duck Trump presidency.