A Guide to French Politics

President Trump is pursuing instability without an end. During the Iran conflict, he mocked British prime minister Starmer for “talking to his team” and French President Emmanuel Macron because “[his wife] treats him extremely badly.” Earlier this year, he said NATO troops “stayed a little off the front lines.” He has threatened withdrawal from NATO. Meanwhile, Russia has continued its violent and abhorrent invasion of Ukraine, hiking energy bills challenging security in Europe for the first time since the Second World War.

At such a time of chaos in America, the UK should seek an alternative to its age-old "special relationship.” The most credible replacement would be a much closer relationship with Europe. Geographically and economically, Europe are our closest neighbours- demonstrated by the EU accounting for 41% of the UK’s exports, the highest of any trading bloc. Militarily, the UK has shared a history of collaboration with Europe as a member of NATO. Therefore, tighter relations with the continent is the only logical path to a secure Britain amid international turbulence. 

The public agree- almost every opinion poll since late 2021 has suggested the UK would vote to rejoin the EU. Support for rejoining the EU is also shared by the Greens and Liberal Democrats, as well as the prominent nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales. Seemingly, the prime minister agrees. Last May, his government signed an agreement that reduced red tape for exports between the UK and EU, and built closer ties with Europe. Whilst this deal is largely insignificant, boasting economic advantages of just £9 billion over 15 years, it portrays a larger “reset” in Anglo-continental relations. During the ongoing Iran conflict, Starmer has announced that he will pursue a closer defence partnership with Europe. 

Despite both public and political support for Europe, Britons know very little about it. In a recent YouGov poll, measuring the most famous foreign politicians, Brits showed they know little about the European Group of Five- the five European countries which wield the most power in the EU, because they have the highest populations and number of EU parliamentarians. 86% of Brits recognised the name of the French President; 52% recognised the Polish prime minister; 37% recognised the Italian prime minister; 26% recognised the German Chancellor; 25% recognised the Spanish prime minister. Given Spain is the most visited country by Brits, the last figure is surprisingly low. In the above YouGov poll, 6 of the 10 most recognised foreign politicians are Americans. Does this mean that the British media invest too much attention into American politics?

In this article, I’ll explore the politics of France- by explaining their electoral processes, current government and their political past and future. In future articles, I will also cover German, Italian and Spanish politics. 

France

As the third most populous country in Europe, France has had significant influence on the subject of politics. In French philosophy, Rousseau said “the people will eat the rich” and Montesquieu proposed the separation of the government’s powers. The political spectrum was birthed amid the French Revolution, when radicalists sat on the left of Parliament and aristocrats sat on the right- hence the “left-right”spectrum of the present day. During its history as a Republic, France has endured various iterations of said Republic.

The current one, the Fifth French Republic, was founded during post-war colonial France. A coup of the local government by French officers fearful of losing the colony of Algeria pressured officials in Paris to dissolve Parliament. French government officials, worried that the unrest could spread, asked the nation’s wartime resistance leader Charles de Gaulle to write a new constitution that would reduce instability. 

The French Fifth Republic is run by a semi-presidential system in which power is split by the President, who acts as the head of state, and the Prime Minister, who acts as head of government. In practice, the President is the commander-in-chief of the French armed forces and the country’s chief diplomat, responsible for meeting with foreign leaders and ratifying treaties in France’s name. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is responsible for domestic affairs and the day-to-day running of the country. France’s Prime Minister is chosen by the country’s President- giving the French President more power than other heads of state in European republics. The French Parliament comprises an upper chambre, the Senate, and a lower chamber, the National Assembly. Like foreign legislatures, the French Parliament is responsible for voting on budgets and holding the government accountable for its decisions. Whilst the two chambers have similar powers, France’s government, led by the Prime Minister, can be voted down by a vote of no confidence by the National Assembly. However, the President can dissolve the National Assembly and hold replacement parliamentary elections at any time. 

France uses the two-round voting system for electing its President and National Assembly. In both rounds, voters cast a vote for one candidate. If one candidate wins a majority of all votes cast in the first-round, they are elected. Otherwise, a second-round, nicknamed a runoff, is held between the two candidates who won the most votes in the first-round. The candidate with the most votes in the second round is elected. Whilst the two-round system was started in France, it has now spread to 87 countries and is the world’s most used way for electing heads of states. However, France’s Senate is elected by local councillors, who are responsible for electing multiple Senators for their department- which essentially is a region. 

France’s multi-party system means that it is usual for several political parties to be represented in the French legislature. Therefore, political parties must form coalitions with ideologically similar parties. Currently, the three biggest coalitions are the left-wing New Front Popular- who won the most seats at the last legislative elections and comprise of political parties from the far-left to the centre-left- the centrist Ensemble- of which President Macron is a member, alongside his Renaissance party, among others- and the far-right National Rally Group, largely comprised by the National Rally, a political party founded by Jean-Marie Le Pen.

In June 2024, France’s National Rally won the EU Parliament elections in the country. As a far-right party who advocate for controls on immigration, especially immigration from Islamic countries, they represent the waves of right-wing populism which have marched through Europe and the world since the mid-2010s. In response to the party’s victory in 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron used his power to dissolve the National Assembly and hold parliamentary elections- assuming that the French voters would deny, and effectively shut down conversation about, the far-right entering government. Perhaps Macron had similar motives to Prime Minister David Cameron when he held his referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU. Like Cameron’s referendum, Macron’s election was a mistake, which would plunge the country into a political crisis and strengthen the National Rally’s hand in Parliament. 

The National Rally, led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, won third place- however they won the most votes. Meanwhile, the centrist coalition Ensemble, of which Macron is a member, won second place, down from first. France’s left, a newly formed broad coalition of the political left, won first place. However, no coalition won an overall majority, meaning a hung parliament was formed for the second consecutive time, after the legislative elections in 2022 also saw no overall winner. After a summer of a successful Olympic Games held in Paris, the centrist prime minister Gabriel Attal resigned, and was replaced by Michel Barnier. As an age-old figure in EU politics, who was the chief negotiator with the UK during Brexit, Barnier seemed like a qualified man to serve as prime minister- during a time when Parliament was more disunited than ever and when a public debt crisis was looming. 

Given the New Popular Front (NPF) won the highest number of seats, France’s public were outraged to see Macron appoint the centre-right Barnier as prime minister. Pollster Elabe found that 74% of French people believed Macron had disregarded the results of the elections by appointing Barnier, with 55% believing he had stolen the election. France Unbowed, a leading party within the New Popular Front, stated that they refused to recognise the results of the election. This furthered a divided and unsettled political landscape. Meanwhile, the French government debt equalled around 117% of GDP, which is the 9th highest of any nation and slightly higher than the UK’s at 103%. As the French population grows older, meaning there are more pensions to pay and fewer people to pay them, the government of Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne introduced a law in 2023 which would increase the retirement age from 62 to 64. Huge backlash was sparked across the country, but the issue of government debt remained urgent. Barnier continued with the proposed pension reform, receiving criticism from both the NPF and National Rally. As a result, he didn’t have the parliamentary approval to pass his budget, the Social Security Financing Bill. However, in early December 2024, Barnier’s government used Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allowed him to bypass a vote in the National Assembly, unless the Assembly voted his government down in a vote of no-confidence. Ultimately, the Assembly passed a vote of no-confidence in Barnier’s government. His budget wasn’t passed. He was forced to resign as French Prime Minister, making him the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of the Fifth French Republic and his government was the first since 1962, when Georges Pompidou was prime minister, to lose a vote of no-confidence. To an extent, Barnier was France’s Liz Truss. Both elected on shaky grounds, Truss received the support of Conservative Party members, who make up a tiny fraction of the UK’s population, and both had their governments fall as a result of economic turmoil. 

François Bayrou, a centrist, succeeded Barnier, and his premiership was littered by chaos. In the first months of his premiership he passed a budget using the same constitutional powers which brought down Barnier, and was luckily able to escape a vote of confidence with the support of the National Rally. With public sector debt still rampant, Bayrou proposed the removal of 2 public holidays and the freezing of all government spending in a widely unpopular plan. After his proposals went down like a led balloon, Bayrou held a vote of no-confidence in himself in September 2025, and the National Assembly voted against him by 364 votes to 194. 

As a replacement for Bayrou, President Macron chose to return to the right of the political spectrum by appointing the right-wing Sebastien Lecornu as prime minister. Like Barnier, Lecornu is an admirer of Charles de Gaulle and a social conservative. A month after his appointment as prime minister, Lecornu revealed his cabinet, which was almost identical to that of Bayrou. As a result, Lecornu faced criticism from opposition parties, and resigned hours after his cabinet was announced. His tenure, lasting 26 days, broke Barnier’s record for shortest serving prime minister since 1958. However, Lecornu was encouraged to return as prime minister. Since his return, Lecornu has implemented an end to benefits for former government ministers, including an end to police protection and chauffeur-driven cars. He has also promised to postpone the proposed pension reforms until after the next Presidential election in 2027. Like his two predecessors, he used Article 49.3 of the constitution to pass a budget. This allowed a party on the left and the National Rally to file no-confidence votes, both of which were rejected. Today, Lecornu’s premiership looks somewhat stable. But that could change when his next budget proposal is announced. 

Political chaos in France over the past few years has pointed the finger back to the man at the top: Macron. After Lecornu resigned, President Macron’s first prime minister, Édouard Philippe, urged Macron to call an early presidential election to solve the nation’s political crisis. The next presidential election is scheduled to happen in 2027, and Macron will be ineligible to stand because a French President cannot serve two consecutive five-year terms. Philippe’s comments were coupled with former PM Gabriel Attal’s, who struggled to understand Macron’s decision making. To make matters worse, Attal leads Macron’s own party. Macron is universally disliked by the French electorate, who disapprove of him by a net of 60%. For some comparison, Starmer’s disapproval rating is 49% and Trump’s is 19%. 

France’s next presidential election will be held in April of next year. For the National Rally, its presidential candidate in the past three elections, Marine Le Pen, is banned from standing as a candidate in an election until 2030. Therefore, the party’s 30-year-old leader Jordan Bardella, who claims the title of most popular politician in France according to a recent YouGov poll, is the frontrunner. Like his party, he promises to stop mass immigration, whilst also declaring that France will not be subservient to a major power, such as Trump’s America. Unlike Nigel Farage, Bardella wants to remain in the EU. The former centre-right prime minister Édouard Philippe appears to be the only credible challenger to Bardella, with most opinion polls suggesting that Philippe would have the edge in the important second round contest. 

Ultimately, France’s political landscape remains shaky. The country has faced many of the same problems as others in the West- an aging population, low economic growth and high public debt, driven by the 2008 financial crisis, COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. French voters have responded by increasingly supporting far-right politicians and movements. The French political system, designed in the days of Empire to reduce Parliament’s power, is crumbling. Political phenomena occurring in France represent a trend spreading across Europe. In one years’ time, we will know whether France has succumbed to the far-right, or if it will continue with the status quo. Given France sits in a similar political position as the UK, the results could be very indicative of our next general election.

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