A Guide to Italian Politics

President Trump is pursuing global instability without an end. Earlier this year, he said NATO troops “stayed a little off the front lines” in Afghanistan. Trump mocked British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer for “talking to his team” and French President Emmanuel Macron because “[his wife] treats him extremely badly.” He has threatened withdrawal from NATO. Meanwhile, Russia has continued its violent and abhorrent invasion of Ukraine, hiking energy bills and challenging security in Europe for the first time since the Second World War.

At such a time of chaos in America, the UK should seek an alternative to its age-old "special relationship.” The most credible replacement would be a much closer relationship with Europe. Geographically and economically, Europe are our closest neighbours- the EU accounts for 41% of UK exports. Militarily, the UK has shared a history of collaboration with Europe as a member of NATO. Tighter relations with the continent is the only logical path to a secure Britain amid international turbulence. 

The public agree- almost every opinion poll since late 2021 has suggested the UK would vote to rejoin the EU, with the most recent polls suggesting a lead in the double-digits. Support for rejoining the EU is shared by the Greens and Liberal Democrats, as well as the prominent nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales. Seemingly, the prime minister agrees. Last May, his government signed an agreement that reduced red tape for exports between the UK and EU, and built closer ties with Europe. Whilst this deal is largely insignificant, boasting economic advantages of just £9 billion over 15 years, it portrays a larger “reset” in Anglo-continental relations. During the ongoing Iran conflict, Starmer has announced that he will pursue a closer defence partnership with Europe. 

Despite both public and political support for Europe, Britons know very little about it. In a recent YouGov poll, measuring the most famous foreign politicians. 86% of Brits recognised the name of the French President; 37% recognised the Italian prime minister; 26% recognised the German Chancellor; 25% recognised the Spanish prime minister. Given Spain is the most visited country by Brits, the last figure is surprisingly low. In the above YouGov poll, 6 of the 10 most recognised foreign politicians are Americans. Does this mean that the British media invest too much attention in American politics?

Previously, I have explored the politics of France. In this article, I’ll explore the politics of Italy by explaining its electoral processes, government and political past and future. In future articles, I will cover German and Spanish politics. 

Politics

The Italian Republic is the fourth most populous country in Europe with a population of 59 million. A member of the G7, Italy was one of the founding fathers of the European Union. The Treaty of Rome, which created the EEC, predecessor to the EU, was signed in the Italian capital. For many, Italy is a byword for political instability. A variety of factors, largely the fact that both chambers in the Italian Parliament hold equal power and the diverse results which proportional representation produces, mean that 68 governments have led Italy over the past 80 years. 

Six states united in 1861 to form the Kingdom of Italy, which was governed by a constitutional monarchy. On 2 June 1946, Italy voted to abolish its monarchy and replace it with a republic by a margin of 54% to 46%. Supporters of a republic attributed the fascist dictatorship of Benito Mussolini as the responsibility of King Victor Emmanuel III for appointing him. Italy adopted its new republican constitution on 1 January 1948. 

The Italian Parliament is a bicameral legislature made up of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Unlike other legislatures, including the UK Parliament, the two chambers share the same functions and responsibilities. There are 400 members of the Chamber of Deputies, the lower chamber, and 205 members of the Senate, the upper chamber. 

147 deputies in the Chamber of Deputies are elected using first-past-the-post for single-member constituencies. This means an election is held in an area and the candidate with the greatest number of votes, wins. 

253 deputies are elected using proportional representation for multi-member constituencies. To be eligible for proportional representation in the Chamber of Deputies, a party must win at least 3% of the national vote share or a coalition of parties must win at least 10% of the national vote share.

To calculate the number of seats a party controls after an election, firstly a national electoral quotient is calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes cast for eligible party lists by the number of seats to be allocated.

Each party's vote total is then divided by this quotient to determine how many seats a party won. The allocation of seats to constituency representatives is determined by a formula that accounts for population differences between constituencies.

Finally, the seats allocated to the lists make it possible to identify the candidates elected for each of them, on the basis of their respective order of presentation. 8 of the 253 proportional representation seats are elected by Italians living abroad.

This system of proportional representation accommodates a large number of political parties in a Parliament. Therefore broad ideological coalitions between parties are often formed. Currently, the largest coalitions in Parliament are the centre-right and centre-left. This does not mean that all parties are members of coalitions.

Italy’s Senate is composed in a similar way to its Chamber of Deputies. 74 Senators are elected using first-past-the-post for single-member constituencies. 126 Senators are elected using proportional representation for multi-member constituencies. Unlike elections to the Chamber of Deputies, in the Italian Senate seats are allocated based on regional support not national support. Of the 126 proportional representation seats, 4 are elected by Italians living abroad. Furthermore, currently 5 members of the Italian Senate are members for life who are either a former President of Italy or were appointed by a President of Italy for “outstanding patriotic merits in the social, scientific, artistic or literary field.”

Elections for Italy’s Chamber of Deputies and Senate are held concurrently. They must happen at least every five years. Voters cast one ballot for each chamber. A vote for a candidate in a single-member constituency is also counted toward the supporting party or coalition's proportional representation total. Voters must be aged at least 18.

In the executive branch, Italy is governed by a President and a Prime Minister. The President serves as head of state. The President's primary duty is to act as an impartial advisor of the Italian Constitution. Additionally, he must sign bills into law and can send them back to Parliament; appoint the Prime Minister and, on the Prime Minister's advice, the Council of Ministers; he has the power to dissolve parliament; appoint new Senators for life; and grant pardons. The President also presides over the Superior Judicial Council and serves as Commander-in-Chief of the Italian Armed Forces. Unlike the French President, he does not have a role in foreign policy. Whilst the role of President of Italy is largely formal, it is not purely ceremonial. In November 2011, then-prime minister Silvio Berlusconi resigned and President Napolitano chose to replace him with unelected European technocrat Mario Monti. This prompted Five Star Movement to call for Napolitano's impeachment. It is a scene which has been repeated throughout Italian history.

Italy’s President is elected by grand electors, composed of all members of both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate as well as a total of 58 delegates from Italy’s regions. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting; after that, a majority is sufficient. Usually, multiple rounds of balloting are required- it took 8 at the last presidential election. Sergio Mattarella has served as the President of Italy since 2015 and was last elected in 2022. The Italian President is elected every seven years.

The Prime Minister of Italy serves as head of government. Officially they are titled President of the Council of Ministers, Italy’s equivalent of the UK Government’s Cabinet, which is composed of Italy’s government ministers. The Council is responsible for approving draft bills; adopting orders; and establishing the Italian government’s domestic and international policy. Furthermore the prime minister serves as the representative of Italy at major international events such as the G7.

Meloni

Italy’s most recent general election was held on 25 September 2022. This followed the collapse of Mario Draghi’s “national unity government” which was established to recover Italy from the COVID-19 pandemic but fell in the summer of 2022 because the populist Five Star party withdrew its support. They suggested that Draghi’s economic aid package wasn’t substantial enough for the cost-of-living crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Therefore an early general election was held. 

Fratelli d’Italia, which translates to “Brothers of Italy,” emerged victorious. In 2012, the party split from former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Freedom Party. The FdI is a successor to the Italian Social Movement, a neo-fascist party which comprised multiple former members of Mussolini’s regime. This has provoked many to describe the FdI as a neo-fascist party. Whilst there are some similarities, 16% of FdI councillors are former members of the Italian Social Movement, the FdI focuses more on policy than emotive politics. 

In a speech to Spain’s Vox Party in 2022, the leader of the FdI Georgia Meloni declared her party’s political positions, "Yes to the natural family, no to the LGBT lobby, yes to sexual identity, no to gender ideology... no to Islamist violence, yes to secure borders, no to mass migration... no to big international finance... no to the bureaucrats of Brussels!” Whilst the FdI has a Eurosceptic outlook, they are committed to Italy’s membership of the EU and Eurozone. 

At the 2022 general election the centre-right coalition won a majority of seats in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The FdI won 26% of the vote, making them the largest party in Parliament. Lega, Forza Italia and other parties are also members of the coalition. This signals a remarkable result for the FdI, who have risen from winning just 4% of the vote in the prior general election, to surpass Matteo Salvini’s Lega as the largest political party on the Italian right. 

Italy’s centre-left coalition were runners up to the centre-right. The First Star Movement, a left-wing populist political party, won third place, suffering a significant reduction in their vote share. Action – Italia Viva, the newly formed centrist alliance of two political parties, won 8% of the vote. 

Meloni’s government was sworn in on 22 October. This marked the first time in post-war Italian history when the nation’s government was led by the far-right. Meloni also became Italy’s first female prime minister. 

Whilst she entered the prime ministership as a radical, Meloni has governed as a pragmatist. Italy has continued to support Ukraine throughout a loutish Trump administration. Meloni’s government has begun spending the €191 billion it was granted from the European Union’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan, a scheme designed to recover countries from the COVID-19 pandemic. Meloni’s migration policies, including limits on the arrival of migrants, restrictions on residence permits and increase in deportations, have resulted in a 60% reduction in illegal entries to Italy in 2024 compared to 2023. To contrast, she has granted 500,000 work visas to non-EU foreign nationals.

Similar to the UK’s Rwanda Plan, Italy’s migration deal with Albania was blocked by Italian courts for breaching domestic laws. The Gjadër Centre cost over €74 million for just 400 places and operated only a few days before closure. On social issues, Italy now ranks among the EU’s lowest for LGBTQ+ protection whilst freedom of expression is also under strain.

Italy’s economic performance is mixed. Unemployment has fallen from 7.8% to 6% and Italy borrows at lower rates than France. Regardless, Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio continues to be the second largest in the Eurozone at 138%. Economic growth remains sluggish at a rate of just 0.5%. 

2027 election

Italy’s voters will elect the nation’s next Parliament no later than December 2027. For the Italian right, Meloni’s meteoric rise and strong governance has been an overwhelming success story. Her government has surpassed all expectations to become the second-longest serving in the history of the Italian Republic. Opinion polls suggest that Meloni will be re-elected at the upcoming general election. A disunited opposition from the left, criticising Meloni for her pro-Israel stance which has gradually become more favourable towards Gaza, and from within her own camp- her opponents shift towards the right without a breakthrough in popularity- are certainly contributing to Meloni’s stability in government and the polls. Meloni’s politics have inspired many on the right across the globe.

Can Nigel Farage govern to the same degree of pragmatism as Meloni? Likely not.