What happened at the May elections?

Millions of voters across the United Kingdom headed to the polls on Thursday. Up for grabs were control of the devolved Parliaments of Scotland and Wales, and therefore control of devolved governments; 5,000 council seats in England across 136 different local authorities; and a handful of mayoralties.

The result was a resounding loss for Labour- who have governed the UK for nearly two years since the July 2024 general election. Voters were clearly frustrated at prime minister Sir Keir Starmer’s government for a perceived failure to deliver the economic and social change promised at the last general election, combined with a series of policy misjudgements such as the removal of the Winter Fuel Payment for some pensioners. Both factors have fuelled an overriding impression- Starmer has no vision for Britain. As a result, Labour collapsed from their landslide victory in 2024, when they won 34% of the vote and 411 seats, to a miserable 17% in the opinion polls, according to Politico. The best opinion polls, however, are those on election day. They weren’t convincing either. Labour lost control of the Welsh Parliament, the Senedd, plunging from having the greatest number of seats to the third place, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK- the former will lead the next Welsh government, instead of Labour for the first time since devolution was brought to Wales in 1999. When Starmer was elected as prime minister, Scottish Labour were destined for Bute House- instead Scotland voted for a fifth term of SNP rule. Disastrous results for Labour south of the border, given it has lost 1,500 councillors and control of 37 councils. 

In response to Labour’s slump, 40 Labour MPs have urged the prime minister to resign or announce a timetable for his resignation- among them Nadia Whittome, MP for Nottingham East, said, “the country faces interlocking crises that demand bold policies and a progressive government with the courage to deliver them. With this in mind, I believe the Prime Minister should announce a timetable for his departure.” Her thoughts are echoed by Labour MPs across the country, many desperately hoping that a change of leadership can turn around the party’s, and their, electoral fortunes. Backbench MP and former junior minister Catherine West has announced she will stand for the leadership of the Labour Party, unless a cabinet minister doesn’t. Fortunately for Starmer, his cabinet have all rallied around him, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves saying “we must get on with delivering that mandate [Labour’s 2024 landslide] - and show how politics can improve people's lives for the better.” 

In this article, I’ll recap the results in Scotland, Wales and across England, whilst asking what is next for British politics.

Wales

3 things are certain in life- death, taxes and Labour winning in Wales. Until yesterday. Since 1922, Labour has won the largest number of seats in every single general election in Wales, making them the democratic world's most successful election-winning machine by some distance, according to Cardiff University's Professor Richard Wyn Jones. Welsh Labour has led the nation’s government, and held control of its parliament, since 1999, when devolution was brought to Wales by Tony Blair. Defining figures in Labour’s political history, from Nye Bevan to Keir Harde, held parliamentary seats in Wales. 

Last Thursday, Welsh Labour’s position in the Senedd collapsed from first to third place by number of seats, losing 21 members of the Senedd. A series of scandals in the Welsh Labour party, notably allegations of cronyism surrounding former first minister Vaughan Gething, drove voters away from the party. The primary factor, however, was Labour’s unpopularity at the UK level, where Keir Starmer’s government is perceived to have failed to deliver the change he promised in 2024. In recent YouGov surveying in March, 64% of Welsh adults believe the UK government is doing a bad job- while only a ¼ of Welsh Labour voters in 2024 say the UK government is doing a good job. Labour’s leader in Wales, Eluned Morgan, failed to win her own seat. This made her the first leader of a UK government to lose their own seat while in office. By vote share, Welsh Labour fell to 11%- winning less than ⅓ of their vote share at the prior Senedd elections in 2021. As a result, Morgan announced her resignation from the role of leader of her party. 

Plaid Cymru won 43 seats in the Senedd, making them the largest party in the Welsh Parliament. They will form the next Welsh government and its leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, will become Wales’s next first minister. However, the party came short of the 49 seats required to win a majority of the 96 seats in the Senedd. Plaid Cymru, which translates to “the Party of Wales” in Welsh, is a left-wing pro-Welsh independence party similar to Scotland’s SNP. Interestingly, the party made little reference to independence during the campaign- Rhun ap lorwerth ruled out the prospect of a referendum on Welsh independence within the first term of his government. Instead he prioritised issues such as the cost-of-living, which he promised to alleviate with a new child benefit and expanded universal childcare. Plaid’s focus on bread-and-butter issues is in contrast to previous manifestoes. This demonstrates that Plaid’s victory at these Senedd elections is much more of a rejection of Labour than a cry for independence. Therefore, it’s unlikely that Plaid’s victory will stir any serious conversations about Welsh independence. 

Not only did Reform UK win their first seat in their Senedd- they won their first 34, making the party the second largest in the Senedd by number of seats. Reform also won 29% of the vote, meaning their seat and vote share increased by the largest of any party at the Senedd elections. This is an impressive result for Reform UK, given they won 1% of the vote when they last contested the Senedd elections in 2021. At that election, Reform in Wales was led by Nathan Gill, who has since been imprisoned for accepting a £40,000 donation from pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine. Reform in Wales is currently run by Dan Thomas, who won election to the Senedd, having lived in England since 1999 and served as a Tory councillor in Barnet from 2006 until 2025. Now, the insurgent party has an opportunity to replace the Conservatives in Wales. 

Welsh Conservatives collapsed to win just 7 seats. This mirrors a pattern from the 2024 general election, when the party won zero seats in Wales. Both the Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK in Wales had similar policy platforms, suggesting little substantial difference between the two parties.

Along with Paul Rock, the Green Party’s leader in Wales Anthony Slaughter will enter the Senedd as the party’s first 2 Senedd members. The Green Party in Wales is part of the Green Party of England and Wales, but makes decisions separately. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats’ performance was largely underwhelming, holding the one seat they had in the Senedd prior to the elections. Throughout the campaign, questions emerged about the relationship between the party’s Welsh leader, Jane Dodds, and their UK leader Ed Davey. When questioned about why Davey didn’t meet her when he visited Cardiff, Dodds said that her relationship with Davey is a private matter. 

Wales’ Senedd elections on Thursday broke history, as they were the first elections on British soil to be held entirely under a system of proportional representation. The size of the Senedd was increased from 60 to 96 at this election, as all 16 new constituencies were drawn across Wales in a historic boundary change. This means that, on paper, all seats were up for grabs and no Senedd member could have lost re-election. Prior to Thursday, Wales used the same system of elections as Scotland- the additional member system (AMS)- in which some members of the parliament are elected in a first-past-the-post election, which is the same as that used to elect members of the UK parliament. Other members are elected in a system of proportional representation in which the party’s number of votes is divided by 1+ the number of seats it won. On Thursday, members of the Senedd were elected entirely through the later system of proportional representation, as described above. Furthermore, both Scotland and Wales chose not to count the votes on Thursday night- rather they waited until Friday, when results were announced throughout the afternoon and early evening. 51.72% of registered voters voted, making the turnout for the 2026 Senedd elections the highest ever for a Senedd election. 

Above: Senedd seat control as a result of the Welsh elections

Rhun ap lorwerth has announced that he intends to lead the next Welsh government in a minority administration. If Plaid want to permanently replace Labour as the party of the left in Wales, they must avoid Keir Starmer’s mistake of a directionless government. To become first minister, lorwerth needs a simple majority of Senedd members to vote for him. The Senedd elections have transformed the picture of Welsh politics for the first time in over a century. The old- Labour and the Conservatives- have been replaced with the new- Plaid and Reform- in a Magnitude 10 political earthquake. For the establishment, it’s time to adapt to a changing world. For the insurgents, it’s time to prove themselves. 

Scotland

The Scottish National Party (SNP) secured their fifth term in Scottish government. Unfortunately for them, their seat count in the Scottish Parliament, nicknamed Holyrood, dropped by 6 down to 58. Their share of the constituency vote also fell by 10%, whilst their share of the regional vote was reduced by 13%. Scottish voters were frustrated at severe instability which has plagued the SNP- including an embezzlement scandal surrounding Peter Murrell, former CEO of the party and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon; and a constant rolling cast of characters, including 3 first ministers since the last Holyrood elections in 2021, one of which last for just one year. Elsewhere, sluggish economic growth and poorly performing public services have contributed to an SNP losing support. Unfortunately for them, the SNP has led the Scottish government for 19 years, and therefore are blamed for a sluggish Scottish economy. Like in Wales, the SNP’s victory in Scotland is more of a rejection of UK Labour than an open endorsement of the SNP’s government. 

Friday could have been a lot worse for Scottish Labour. Its leader, Anas Sarwar, faced difficult circumstances, given 79% of Scottish voters disapproved of the UK Labour government and he had personally called on Keir Starmer to resign during the Lord Mandelson scandal. Sarwar’s party increased their position in the Scottish Parliament from third place to joint second by number of seats won, despite losing 5 seats, 2.4% of the constituency vote and 1.9% of the regional vote. After all results were tallied, Labour won 17 seats at Holyrood. When Labour entered the UK government in 2024, Scottish Labour appeared to be guaranteed control of the Scottish government as 37 of 57 Scottish seats in the House of Commons were won by Labour. Starmer’s popularity has slumped since, and now Scottish Labour have failed to win control of Holyrood. This suggests that, whilst on paper their losses are only a fraction of that of the Tories, Scottish Labour may have been Thursday’s biggest loser.

Reform UK debuted in joint-second place by number of seats won at Holyrood. Unlike at the UK Parliament, Holyrood has no official opposition, therefore both Labour and Reform UK will play opposition without any special titles. All 17 of the seats Reform UK won were on the regional lists. Even their leader Malcolm Offord failed to win his constituency in Inverclyde, placing third behind the SNP and Labour candidates. 6 houses, 6 boats, 5 cars and nae seats, social media users barked in relation to a remark Offord made about his wealth in a TV debate. Eventually, Offord won a seat on the regional list. Whilst Reform UK failed to become the largest party at Holyrood, or pose a challenging threat to the SNP’s crown, the idea that Reform could win 16% of the constituency and regional vote in Scotland would have been inconceivable, even months ago. All 32 council areas in Scotland voted to Remain in the European Union ten years ago, whilst a total of 62% of Scotland voted to Remain. Reform UK must now prove itself as an effective opposition in Scotland.

Scottish Greens are chuffed. On Thursday, the Scottish Greens increased their seat count from 7 to 15 members of the Scottish Parliament. The party won its first ever constituency seat in Holyrood in Edinburgh Central, before they won another in Glasgow Southside, the constituency of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who retired at this election, bringing their total constituency seat count to 2. Given the nature of the Scottish electoral system where parties are penalised in the regional results for winning constituency seats, the Greens’ result in Edinburgh is particularly notable as they won 3 MSPs. Co-led by Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, the Scottish Greens hope to influence policy in a similar way to their previous coalition with the SNP. 

Russell Findlay’s Scottish Conservatives were a big casualty on Friday. Their position in the Scottish Parliament, by number of seats, fell from second to fourth, as the party won 12 seats at Holyrood, a remarkable drop from the 31 they won at the last election in 2021. Throughout the campaign, the party was criticised for lacking any policies, with the exception of remaining in the United Kingdom. Findlay’s uninspiring campaign, combined with the sheer unpopularity of the UK Conservatives, resulted in a poor performance for the Scottish Conservatives. Will the party be replaced by Reform UK?

At the Liberal Democrat conference in Bournemouth in autumn 2025, I witnessed the party’s leader in Scotland Alex Cole-Hamilton pledge that his party would overtake the Scottish Conservatives. They didn’t. But they very nearly did- the Liberal Democrats won 10 seats, up 6, placing them in fifth place with just 2 seats behind the Conservatives. Liberal Democrat vote share increased by 4% in both the constituency and regional votes. Previously, Liberal Democrats have supported budgets from SNP governments. Perhaps the Lib Dems will have a similar role in the next parliament. 

Above: Senedd seat control as a result of the Welsh elections

England

Elections were held for all council seats across all 32 London borough councils, comprising over 1,800 council seats across the nation’s capital. Labour won outright control of 8 of those 32 councils, down from the 21 they won when London’s borough councils were last contested. The Conservatives gained overall control of Westminster council, which Labour have controlled since 2022. They also became the largest party on Wandsworth council, one of the few remaining areas whose result was a 2-horse race between Labour and the Conservatives, and held off threats by Reform UK by holding councils in Bromley and Bexley. Liberal Democrats maintained their stronghold in southwest London. The Greens gained control of Hackney, Lewisham and Waltham Forest borough councils, whilst they also won mayoral elections in Hackney and Lewisham. Reform UK won just one council- Havering on the eastern edge of London, where Reform promised a referendum on the borough leaving the Greater London Authority, a policy driven by opposition to ULEZ. Whilst the Conservative and Labour electoral force are waning across the country, London proves to buck that trend. Insurgents have made inroads, but not at nearly the rate required to challenge the two-party duopoly of London. The metropolitan bubble is alive and well. 

Labour lost control of Birmingham City council, Europe’s largest local authority. The party had held majority control of the council since 2012, but recent events including a period of bankruptcy which last for 2 ½ years, resolved when the council sold hundreds of millions of pounds worth of assets, and a recent bin strike by waste collection workers who were facing reductions in pay of up to £8,000, resulting in a city covered by a layer of rubbish and “rats the same size as cats,” had put Labour’s grip on Birmingham on edge. Labour fell from first place by number of seats to third, behind Reform UK with the largest number of seats, 22, and the Greens with the second largest number at 19. The Tories won 16; independents won 13; and the Liberal Democrats won 12. This means that no party reached the threshold of 51 seats to win majority control of the council- instead the results represent the urban fragmentation of British politics. Parties will now scramble to engage in coalition negotiations for control of Birmingham City Council. 

Reform UK continued their dominance of English politics on Thursday night. Nigel Farage’s right-wing party won over 1,450 councillors, almost all of them for the first time, and gained control of 14 councils in England. Reform’s incompetent and poor performance in local government, in which 73 of their councillors have either resigned or defected and broken promises on council tax are frequent, seemingly did not influence decisions by voters. Instead, many voted for Reform UK because they disapprove of Starmer’s government- a sentiment which was echoed by the party’s slogan “Vote Reform. Get Starmer out.”

Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats across England. Whilst the party won control of 28 councils, it lost 37, and many of its victories happened in councils where only ⅓ of seats were contested. The Conservatives also experienced losses of over 500 councillors, and 6 councils, across England. Whilst they faced the fourth year on the trot for devastating electoral results, the results are nowhere near as ruinous as they are for Labour. This enabled Tory leader Kemi Badenoch to claim that the results for her party indicate a comeback. 

It was a mixed night for the Liberal Democrats. The party gained control of Stockport and Portsmouth councils, but they had previously run both in minority administrations. They won the two newly-established East and West Surrey Councils, ending 53 years of Conservative rule in Surrey. They lost control of Hull, one of the few orange cities in the north and one of the few Liberal Democrat/Labour contests in the country. Liberal Democrats will likely continue to lead the council in either a minority or coalition administration. They also failed to win control of Hampshire County Council. However, Lib Dems achieved its objective of increasing its number of councillors, this time by 155, meaning they have increased their number of councillors every single year for the past 8 years. The question now is whether such a result enables Ed Davey to continue his leadership, or whether the party seeks alternatives. 

Greens won 587 councillors- an increase of 437- and 5 councils. They also won their first directly elected mayor, Zoe Garbett in Hackney, alongside the mayoral contest in Lewisham. Outside of London, the party gained control of Norwich and Hastings. Whilst many supporters could have been hoping for a stronger result, 587 councillors is roughly in line with predictions. Now, questions emerge over how successfully the Greens will govern its new councils, given their governance of Brighton was viewed unfavourably by many. 

Conservatives lost control of my home county’s council, Hampshire County Council (HCC). After 29 years of control, the Tories were reduced to 27 seats, narrowly defeating the Lib Dems who won 26 and Reform UK in third place with 20. Presumably, a Conservative/Reform UK coalition will ensue, in which Reform UK could play a sizable role given their party’s seat share. These elections are not as significant as they usually would be. HCC will be abolished in two years’ time in 2028, whilst elections for new unitary authorities across Hampshire will occur next year in 2027. Power will then be transferred from HCC to unitary authorities in 2028. The government claims this action, part of a broader local government reorganisation, will make council services more efficient. 

The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS) uses results in bellwether council wards to predict the outcome of the election if all constituencies voted. PNS predicted that Reform UK would win the largest share of the vote- 26%, a decrease of 4% compared to their result last year; whilst the Greens would win the second largest at 18%, an increase of 7%; Labour and the Conservatives would battle for third place at 17%; and the Liberal Democrats were in fourth place with 16% of the vote, a slight decrease from 2025. 

This reflects a remarkable moment in British politics in which the two-party system of Labour or the Conservatives is crumbling, instead the age-old parties compete for third place, meanwhile the insurgents- Reform UK and the Greens claim to be on the precipice of government.  

Labour backbencher Catherine West has urged the cabinet to identify a successor for Keir Starmer, otherwise she will run against the prime minister in an election for the leadership of the Labour Party. West claims she has the support of 10 Labour MPs, a fraction of the 40 who have declared they’d like to see the prime minister resign. For a period of time, it looked as if the prime minister’s position remained unchallenged. Starmer had even appointed former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown and former Labour minister Harriet Harman as special envoys for global finance and women and girls, respectively. That perception is crumbling.