What will happen at May’s elections?

Sir Keir Starmer entered government, having led the Labour Party to the third greatest victory in its history, nearly two years ago. A combination of poor communication, lack of ambitious policy and scandal have slid his approval rating to negative 49%. As a result, Starmer faces threats from everywhere. On the right, Reform UK and Nigel Farage have risen to first place in the opinion polls. Farage, once the lead cheerleader of Brexit, now promises to limit the rates of immigration and tax. On the left, the Green Party and Zack Polanski have risen. They have captured the support of dissatisfied Labour voters, who feel they have been denied the radical left-wing government which they voted for in 2024. The pressure is also mounting from within Labour. Scottish Labour leader called for the prime minister to quit in February, and still stands by his comments. Leaked briefings from November suggested Starmer’s aides were worried about MPs starting a coup if the budget was a disaster. Angela Rayner is rallying support inside the Westminster bubble. 

The commonly held belief by politicians, aides and the media is that Labour’s terrible poll ratings will translate into a disastrous showing at this year’s local elections. Labour MPs then have the justification to coup Starmer, or force his resignation. 

On 7 May, voters across Britain will head to the polls. In Scotland, the nation’s devolved Parliament, the Scottish Parliament, will be elected, and the winner will form the next Scottish government. For 19 years, the nationalist SNP, who advocate for Scottish independence, has controlled the nation’s government. Many pointed the finger at the SNP for a declining Scotland, to the point at which Scottish Labour looked like the party most likely to form the next government, however the unpopularity of Labour in Westminster have returned the SNP into a comfortable lead in the opinion polls. However, the party faces new challenges from Reform UK. In Wales, the Welsh Parliament, nicknamed the Senedd, is also up for election. The winner will decide the next Welsh government. Labour have led the Welsh government, and won every single election, since devolution was brought to Wales in 1999. However, Welsh Labour faces the same problem as the party does in Scotland and nationwide- the sheer unpopularity of Starmer’s government. Instead, the Welsh nationalist Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are battling out for control of the Senedd. Labour falling from first to third in Wales would be a disaster. Across England, dozens of local authorities are up for election, and many of them were expected to happen last year, but were postponed. The sheer size of these elections- comprising elections to two devolved Parliaments and countless councils in England- has meant that they are essentially an US-style “midterm election,” given they will occur nearly halfway through Starmer’s premiership.

In this article, I’ll explore the upcoming elections in Scotland, Wales and England, and ask what this all means for the future of the Starmer premiership.

Scotland

The Scottish Parliament uses a different system to elect its members, unlike the Westminster Parliament which uses first-past-the-post. There are 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament- 73 constituency MSPs and 56 regional MSPs. Scotland’s Additional Member System (AMS) means that voters have two votes. A voter’s first vote is for their constituency MSP. A constituency MSP represents one constituency and is elected using the first past the post system- similar to a Westminster MP. A voter’s second vote is for a Regional MSP- where they vote for a party, not a candidate. Regional MSPs represent one of the eight regions. Each region elects seven regional MSPs. Regional seats are allocated using the d’Hondt method in which the party’s regional vote total is divided by the number of constituency seats won in that region plus one. The party with the highest result gets the first regional seat, and the calculation is repeated until all seven seats are filled. In both regional and constituency ballots, only one vote is cast. 

Nicknamed Holyrood, the Scottish Parliament was founded in 1999 as part of a devolution bill, which also gave Wales a Parliament, under Tony Blair’s government. 65 seats are required for a majority at Holyrood, which comprises 129 MSPs. To become first minister, or head of the Scottish government, a vote in the Scottish Parliament occurs and the individual who wins a simple majority will be appointed as first minister. The Scottish government has devolved powers and is responsible for the nation’s NHS, education and tax system, among other powers. 

Despite immense turbulence and a nation crying out for change, the SNP holds a convincing lead in opinion polls. Before Labour were elected to Westminster government in July 2024, YouGov suggested Labour held a narrow one point lead over the SNP in the constituency vote. The most recent poll now suggests the SNP holds a 16 point lead over Labour. However, the polls could be incorrect. Scottish Labour won a recent by-election to Holyrood last June, and one poll suggests that around 40% of Scottish voters would be open to changing their mind. We will use polling as a factor to analyse, whilst not blindly trusting it. 

Since the SNP was re-elected in 2021 for its fourth term, turbulence has defined the party. Nicola Sturgeon’s successor, Humza Yousaf, announced that the Scottish government would end its climate targets to achieve by the year 2030. In response, the Scottish Greens left the agreement, making Yousaf vulnerable to a no-confidence vote, which would end his tenureship. To prevent a no-confidence vote, Yousaf resigned. He was replaced by John Swinney, a senior SNP politician whose first ministership has been relatively uneventful. In recent years, polling has indicated that Scotland would vote to be an independent nation, which may be one reason why the SNP’s grip on power remains strong.

Scottish Labour is led by Anas Sarwar. As previously stated, the party’s support has dropped remarkably since Labour entered government nearly two years ago. In February, Starmer’s government was on the brink of collapse because questions were emerging about how much Starmer knew about Peter Mandelson’s relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Starmer’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney resigned, prompting rumours to swirl around how long Starmer himself had left. McSweeney had been central to Starmer’s election victory and government. On the following day, Sarwar publicly urged Starmer to resign. Because Sarwar had remained so close to Starmer, and vice versa, throughout their respective leaderships, his comments came as a wild surprise. However, Starmer’s cabinet ministers began rallying behind him, urging him to remain in office. Eventually, he stayed. Most likely, Sarwar made these comments because he assumed that Starmer would resign and, if Starmer did, he wanted to claim that he was the individual who put the pressure on Starmer. More broadly, Sarwar’s comments suggest that he is disloyal. Over a month after the incident, Sarwar announced that he had not spoken to the prime minister since he urged him to resign, and Sarwar more recently said that he stood by his comments. An awkward relationship is ahead for Sarwar and Starmer, significantly damaging a bruised Labour Party in the run-up to May. 

Whilst one party struggles, another shines. The Scottish Greens are independent from the English and Welsh one, since both parties have been separated because the Scottish Greens wanted to be more representative of local issues by being based in Scotland, instead of in Westminster. Last month, the party achieved 10,000 members, having gained 2,500 over recent months. Civibus has previously analysed Reform UK’s campaign in Scotland (Could Scotland Experience its Biggest Political Earthquake for Decades?). To summarise, whilst the party presents itself as a fresh start for Scotland with an ambitious policy manifesto, they poll only at around 15% and have already suspended a candidate, making victory unlikely.

The SNP are the most popular party by a considerable margin. If they don’t form a majority, one likely scenario is another confidence and supply agreement with the Greens. Ultimately, the party is posed for its fifth term in Scottish government. Reform UK will be disappointed to not have pulled off the upset victory it was hoping for, however it will have established a footing in Scotland, a thought which would have been unprecedented 18 months ago. The Greens could end up as the largest opposition party, a similarly unimaginable position for the party. One worrying image would be a Scottish Parliament in which the two largest parties believe Scotland should be independent. In which case, the future of the Union is in trouble. If Labour are reduced from second place to third or fourth place, behind two left-wing independence parties, a resounding message will be sent to the national Labour Party and the prime minister- it’s time to go.

Wales

In May, Wales will elect its Welsh Parliament, nicknamed the Senedd. Previously, elections in Wales were held under the Additional Member System (AMS), which is the same system used in Scotland. However, May’s elections will use the closed-list proportional representation system of voting. This system is the same as the Regional part of Scotland’s. In Wales, 96 Senedd members will be elected to 16 constituencies. This means that this Welsh election will make history as the first to use proportional representation in a British election. 

Given the Senedd has 96 members, 49 Senedd members are required for a majority. Like in Scotland, the first minister of Wales, or head of the Welsh government, is elected through a simple majority of Senedd members. Like in Scotland, Wales has a devolved NHS and systems of education and transportation, for which the Welsh government is responsible.

Welsh Labour has governed since devolution was brought to Wales in 1999. In fact, it has won the plurality of the Welsh vote in every single United Kingdom general election since 1922, making it the democratic world's most successful election-winning machine by some distance, according to Cardiff University's Professor Richard Wyn Jones. The most recent YouGov opinion poll for which party to vote for at the Welsh Senedd elections placed Plaid Cymru in first place with a predicted 33% of the vote; Reform UK in second place with a predicted 27% of the vote; Labour in third with a predicted 13% of the vote. That means Labour is projected to win ⅓ of the votes which it won at the last Senedd elections, marking a significant decline in its popularity. Professor Jones named Labour the democratic world’s most electorally successful party. That title may soon begin to slip. 

Like the SNP in Scotland, Welsh Labour have experienced a large amount of political turbulence. After two first ministers resigned the party is led by Eluned Morgan, who will lead the party into May’s election. Morgan remains unpopular in Wales- 47% of Welsh people say she is doing a bad job, compared to 23% of Welsh people who say she is doing a good job. 

However, Labour’s unpopularity at the national level is the main driver behind its fall in support in Wales. In recent YouGov surveying in March, 64% of Welsh adults believe the UK government is doing a bad job. Only ¼ of Labour voters in 2024 say that the UK government is doing a good job. In Wales, the cost-of-living remains the primary issue for voters, which is an issue in which Labour are expected to perform poorly. 

Plaid Cymru, which translates to “the party of Wales,” has the highest polling numbers. They are a left-wing party which supports Welsh independence and have been led by Rhun ap Iorwerth since 2023. Plaid lead the opinion polls not because they are the main party supporting Welsh independence, only 15% of Welsh voters said Welsh independence should be a top priority for the Welsh government, rather because they are positioning themselves as the left-wing alternative to Labour in government. The party won the third largest number of seats and votes at the last Senedd elections, or the second largest of the left-wing parties, leading by a significant amount over the Liberal Democrats, the fourth largest party. Therefore, left-wing voters are most likely to vote for Plaid because they are the left-wing party in the best position to win power, aside from Labour, with whom they are growing evermore disappointed. To make matters worse for Starmer, Plaid’s popularity has already been tested. Last October, Plaid gained a seat in a Senedd by-election in Caerphilly, a Labour stronghold for over 100 years. Plaid rose from first to second; Reform rose from seventh to second; Labour slid from first to third, losing 35% of the vote. If Plaid perform as well as expected, Labour’s grip on the left of Welsh politics, or Welsh politics more broadly, slips. Nationally, that would be a disaster for Labour. 

Reform UK appointed Dan Thomas as its leader in Wales in February. The former London councillor hasn’t lived in Wales for the past 26 years, but he will lead Reform UK at the Senedd elections. Driven by a lack of wealth and prosperity, Wales is the perfect place for populist politicians to answer complex problems with simple solutions, namely the demonisation of immigrants. Therefore, Wales has always been fertile ground for Nigel Farage’s political career- it voted to leave the EU by a margin of 53% to 47%. In his new political outfit, Farage hopes to return to Wales and offer lower taxes and an end to Wales’s asylum policy. Given his party’s position in the polls, he looks unlikely to form the Welsh government. 

There is a consensus that it will be difficult to predict the results of these elections because of the new voting system. Therefore, polling numbers must be taken with a pinch of salt. A left-wing government led by Plaid with support from Labour looks likely. A similar agreement happened after the last Senedd elections, but the roles were reversed. Reform could be the largest opposition party. Therefore, the Senedd elections could be the most transformative and impactful for Wales since devolution was established 27 years ago. Two populist outsider parties could find themselves as the two largest in the Welsh Parliament- in a break from the age-old status quo of Labour versus Conservative. Labour have dominated Welsh politics for over a century. At May’s set of elections, the Welsh Senedd elections will be the most likely condition for Starmer’s resignation. Assuming Labour plummets at the rate at which they are expected, backbench rebels have the credibility to ask the prime minister to go. Of course, that is only if Starmer hasn’t already decided he will. 

England

Labour’s control of London may crumble. The party has generally won more parliamentary seats in London compared to nationwide, and more recently, by a considerable margin. At the last London borough elections, Labour won 21 of the 32 councils up for grabs. This time, London’s voters may be seeking alternatives. 

Up for election are London’s 32 borough councils. The UK’s capital is divided into 32 different areas, boroughs, whose councils are responsible for education, libraries and bin collection, among other things. The borough councils are different to London’s Greater Authority, which includes the city’s Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan and the London Assembly, whose largest group is the Labour Party. Furthermore, 5 boroughs will hold an election for their directly-elected mayor, responsible for the council’s executive branch. 

After the February 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election, the Green Party of England and Wales hopes to win major gains in London. Last February’s parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester proved that the Green Party can win in urban behemoths such as London. In May, the party is aiming to win councillors in Islington, Haringey and Newham, as well as gaining the mayoralties of Lewisham and Hackney. Zack Polanski, the Leader of the Greens, is a Londoner who lives in Hackney, and has represented the whole of London at the London Assembly for the past 5 years. A survey by JL Partners suggested that the Greens would win the largest number of votes in Hackney and Haringey. This means that the Greens are on course for groundbreaking gains in London. The Greens hope to win 12 parliamentary seats at the next general election, including party leader Zack Polanski, who has said that he will stand for Parliament in London. For a party now defined by progressives, London council gains are the bare minimum if the Greens want to play kingmaker at the next general election. 

Like in Scotland, Nigel Farage has previously failed to win electoral success in London. Greater London voted to remain in the EU by a margin of 60-40%. However, Reform hopes to win councils in outer London at May’s elections, in areas frustrated by Sadiq Khan’s mayoralty and dissatisfied by the Conservatives. Specifically, Reform UK is focusing on the boroughs of Bexley, Bromley, Havering and Hillingdon. If Reform makes inroads, they could portray themselves as London’s party of the right, but victory in London’s 2028 mayoral contest remains unlikely. 

Elsewhere, Labour are projected to lose 600 council seats, which is over half of the number they won in 2022. 

An election will happen for Birmingham City Council. The incumbent Labour Party has controlled the council during some very turbulent recent years, in which it was effectively bankrupt for 2 ½ years and a one-year long strike by binmen resulted in a city defined by trash. Therefore, Labour is likely to collapse. More in Common polling suggests that Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK will all win a roughly equal number of seats in May, whilst the Liberal Democrats and Green Party will win slightly fewer. Ultimately, Labour’s 14-year rule in the city is coming to an end, and most likely a “rainbow coalition” of the left will succeed it. Whilst a poor result is predicted, perhaps it isn’t too devastating for Starmer given his government has stood against the workers on strike.

My home county of Hampshire will elect our county council in May. Like 9 other county council elections, Hampshire’s was originally expected to take place in May 2025, however they were postponed by the government for the reorganisation of local government. Last February, a planned legal challenge by Reform UK would have cancelled the government’s delay of local elections, but the UK government agreed to hold the elections before any legal process began. 

Little polling has been conducted in Hampshire, and in similar contests, but the Conservative Party’s 29-year period leading Hampshire County Council (HCC) is likely to be over. This is because the Conservatives lost 7 parliamentary seats at the last general election, and since then polling has only decreased for the party. Therefore, the election will result in no overall control and potentially a Conservative-Reform UK coalition governing HCC.

Conclusion

For a long time, May’s elections have been viewed as the moment when prime minister Sir Keir Starmer will leave Downing Street. This makes sense, given Labour are predicted to perform terribly at Holyrood. In Wales, Labour will likely lose their century-aged grip on power, by coming third at the Senedd elections. Meanwhile, Labour could lose 600 councillors in London. To an extent, President Trump’s war in Iran may have saved Starmer. Which likely Labour leadership contender wants to become prime minister at a time of such immense geopolitical instability? However, assuming Labour perform as badly as they are expected, this lays the ground for party rebels to pounce.

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