Why Reform UK is losing support

In May 2025, Reform UK shook British politics. For the first time since the Projected National Share was introduced, in 1982, neither the Conservatives nor Labour won more votes in a set of local elections- instead, it was Reform. The party won 677 councillors, an unprecedented gain from the last time the 2025 council seats were up for grabs, when they won 0, an estimated 30% of the vote, meaning that they gained control of 10 councils and 2 mayoralties. Reform’s impressive result at that set of elections marked the “turning point”, when the two-party system of Conservatives versus Labour, which has dominated the UK for the last century, crumbled. 

Reform’s victory in the 2025 local elections also made the party a serious political force. A combination of more momentum and increased popularity meant that the party climbed the polls. Since last May, Reform UK has averaged around 30% in opinion polls. This rise of support was perpetuated by a summer of anti-immigrant protests- targeting hotels used as accommodation for asylum seekers, and flags hoisted to lampposts. These protests became evident in almost every town across Britain and meant that immigration, the issue which most attracts voters to Reform, dominated the political discussion, fuelling Reform’s rise. This phenomenon has transferred into the betting markets, where Reform are most likely to form government and party leader Nigel Farage is one of the most likely to become the next prime minister. 

Parties across the political spectrum have shifted their criticism from one another towards Reform UK. In a recent speech, prime minister Sir Keir Starmer said that “the battle of our times is the battle between a patriotic Labour Party, Labour government and the division of Reform”- not making any mention of the Conservatives. Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey dedicated his conference speech to the line “Don’t let Trump’s America become Farage’s Britain”. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has also attacked Reform. This criticism is bizarre and unusually for a political party with only, until recently, 5 seats in the House of Commons. 

It is clear that Nigel Farage’s insurgent political force has redefined politics. 

Perhaps the perception that Reform UK is dominating politics is false. The party has fallen to poll at around 25%, noticeably lower than months ago. Reform were expected to win two by-elections, in Caerphilly and Gorton and Denton, but they failed. They likely will not seize control of the Scottish or Welsh Parliaments, or have success in London councils, which will be one of the key determiners of success at the upcoming May elections. Many say that the party has peaked.

In this article, I’ll explore how Reform rose, and explain its fall.

How Reform UK gained popularity

The tale of Reform UK is one that has been widely recounted. However, it is essential to understanding its current standing and future. Nigel Farage, the anti-EU campaigner, established the Brexit Party in 2018 to support a no-deal Brexit. After the UK left the EU in 2020, with a deal, it rebranded to ‘Reform UK,’ a party which would oppose lockdowns. Since then, it has expanded to also support lower levels of immigration and tax. At the last general election in July 2024, Farage led the party to win 14% of the vote, the third highest vote share of any party, but they only won 5 seats as a result of Britain’s brutal first-past-the-post voting system.

Reform UK’s support lies in opposition to the political establishment. Voters are disillusioned with a political system which offers the Conservative Party, responsible for delivering 14 years of a deteriorating economy and public services, and a Labour Party, who are not offering the change that is demanded of them. Reform voters were the most likely to say that “there is a need for a radical change in how the UK economy is managed,” according to a recent Yonder poll. Reform UK’s populist approach to politics, which perhaps compromises detail and planning, offers solutions, and scapegoats, is perceived to offer radical change to Britain. This has been one of the driving factors in a rise of support for the party since the election of the Starmer government in 2024.

Reform UK won a sweeping level of support at last year’s local elections. Alongside hundreds of councillors, 10 councils and 2 mayors was a fifth MP in a by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, albeit by a majority of just 6 votes. Inspired by President Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE, Reform deployed a team of party officials to its county councils, who had the objective of identifying, and cutting, inefficiencies, therefore reducing government spending and council tax. The party used their electoral victory as an opportunity to demonstrate how a nationwide Reform government would look, and to show that it could be a party of government, and not a protest party. 

Reform’s popularity continued over the summer of 2025, amid anti-immigration protests. Originating in opposition to hotels accommodating asylum seekers, they extended to include the “Operation Raise the Colours” movement, in which the Union flag is persistently displayed on flag poles and roundabouts. A protest led by Stephen Yaxley-Lennon in September was attended by up to 150,000 individuals, and received wide media attention. Whilst Reform dissociated with Robinson, widespread discussion of immigration certainly contributed to their support.

Reform UK rose for many reasons. It has positioned itself as the anti-establishment party, opposed to immigration, but which claims to have the ability to govern. Perhaps, however, that was a mistake.

How Reform UK lost popularity

In British politics, Reform UK became the talk of the town. It rose to around 30% in the opinion polls, occasionally a double-digit lead over its nearest rivals, and many thought that it would form the next government. In recent months, this perception is faltering. One recent YouGov poll suggested Reform led by just 4 points. The party lost 2 by-elections, in Caerphilly for the Welsh Parliament, and in Gorton and Denton for Westminster, both by a margin of 11%, which were deemed winnable and crucial for Reform. London politics newspaper On London suggests Reform are struggling to find candidates to run in the upcoming local elections. Reform does not look as likely as they did last summer to form the next government. Whilst there is no single moment which explains this fall, I think that some factors have driven this fall.

Most obviously, a wave of defections from the Conservative Party have led to reduced support for Reform. Tory Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick joined Reform in a tumultuous day after he was removed from the party by its leader, Kemi Badenoch. Once deemed as “tory leader in waiting,” who nearly won leadership of the party in 2024, Jenrick has become an ardent supporter of his new party. Jenrick’s defection preceded Andrew Rosindell’s and Suella Bravermann’s. Other high-profile politicians who have joined Reform include Nadhim Zahawi, Nadine Dorries and Malcolm Offord. These are only a handful of the total number of names, given all 8 sitting Reform MPs, and its Chairman and Head of Policy, used to be members of the Conservative Party. 

Many Reform voters are frustrated by this influx. As previously mentioned, they are more anti-establishment than any other group. The Conservative Party represents the fundamental pillar of the British establishment- evident by its long periods in government, and connections to the upper classes. Furthermore, the Conservatives are largely blamed for high levels of immigration and taxes, including a net migration rate of nearly 1 million and the highest tax burden since the Second World War, as well as underperforming public services. Reform voters are eager to radically change Britain, hence the party’s name. Conservatives do not offer that change. The populist Reform UK attracts voters who are opposed to the Conservatives, and will be less likely to vote for a party that is full of them. In the words of Nigel Farage, “Never trust a Tory.”

Reform UK is experiencing the same problem as the Conservatives- their voters are more extreme than party leadership. Polling by firm Hope not Hate stated that 54% of Reform members thought non-white British citizens born abroad should be forcibly removed or encouraged to leave, while 22% also supported removal for non-white citizens whose parents were born in the UK. In comparison, Reform proposes abolishing Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), which enables immigrants to settle in the UK for as long as they like, and the deportation of asylum seekers. The hardline anti-immigrant sentiment of Reform’s voters does not match the party’s policy on immigration, which looks comparably centrist. The Chief Executive of Hope not Hate, Nick Lowles, said: “If they [Reform UK] were to form a government, you could see a number of their members becoming quite disillusioned.” Therefore, some Reform voters are leaving the party, and instead searching for a more radical alternative. 

Britain’s political right is fracturing. Fierce infighting emerged after Nigel Farage returned to Reform UK. Former deputy leader of the party Ben Habib established his own party, Advance UK, as a far-right alternative to Reform. One of the 5 Reform MPs elected, Rupert Lowe, recently established Restore Britain as a rival to his former party. This splintering on the right is giving Reform voters more choice for a right-wing anti-establishment force, rather than solely Reform. Restore promises to deport all illegal migrants, abolish the asylum system and revoke citizenship for some individuals. Reform voters, who have aforementioned strongly anti-immigrant views, may prefer Restore’s harsher policies. A transfer of support from Reform to Restore is perpetuated by the fact that ⅔ of Reform members have a positive view of Lowe. Lowe claims that his party has 110,000 members- many of whom presumably are former Reform supporters- however those claims need independent verification. 

Perhaps the professionalisation of Reform UK has led to a loss of support. In February, the party announced its “Shadow Cabinet”- comprising 4 individuals who would have their own portfolio, in preparation for a potential Reform government. Richard Tice had responsibility for business and energy, Robert Jenrick became “Shadow Chancellor,” Zia Yusuf responsible for the home affairs brief, and Suella Bravermann with a large portfolio for education and skills. Meanwhile, Reform hasn't been as radical as some could have hoped in local government- migrants are not held in tents, in contrast to Reform mayor Andrea Jenkyn’s proposals. The party chose an academic, bused in from Hertfordshire, to contest the by-election in Gorton and Denton. Combined with the aforementioned influx of former Conservatives, all these illustrate a party who are slowly transforming into another party of the professional class. Fundamentally, for many, Reform UK is a protest party. More in Common say that Reform’s voters may be the most dissatisfied and are united in their belief that politics is broken. They want to vote against the political class. That doesn’t necessarily mean they are the greatest enthusiast of some of the party’s policies- especially on the NHS- rather it means that they most want to vote against the status quo. Reform voters may not want a shadow cabinet or fully-costed manifesto- they simply want to vote against the status quo.

Finally, Reform’s loss of support could be driven by the direction of the political discussion in Britain. Asylum seekers cross the English Channel during periods of calmer weather, because that is when they are most likely to safely arrive in the UK. Such periods of calmer weather occur during the summer months. For example, 18% of the asylum seekers in 2022 arrived in the UK in August of that year. Therefore, discussion about immigration and asylum seekers increases, favouring Reform UK. During the winter months, attention shifts to focus on the economy as a result of the autumnal Budget, and rising bills because people spend more heating their homes during winter than over the summer. Reform UK struggle to gain popularity on the issue of the economy. Only 34% of Britons say that Reform has a good-long term economic plan for Britain, according to Ipsos. Their policies which advocate for tax cuts for big businesses and a French-style social insurance system for healthcare are broadly unpopular with Britons. Meanwhile, political commentators praised Kemi Badenoch for her response to the Budget, suggesting that it is the Conservatives, not Reform, who are stronger opposition to the Labour government’s economic policy. However, this could mean that Reform UK’s polling numbers rise once again during the summer. Perhaps the timing of the next general election will be crucial to whoever wins it, therefore Starmer could consider a winter election.

In conclusion, Reform UK’s support is slipping. On average, their polling has reduced by 5% compared to last summer. Once an anti-establishment party, they face competition from the right, coupled with the idea that many are seeking even more radical right-wing solutions. We could be witnessing the end of Reform UK.